Iraq was in crisis before Israel and Iran started trading blows. Now, it’s next door to a conflict.
In the days before Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, the State Department was preparing for a possible evacuation of personnel from Iraq. In the past, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have targeted the US Embassy in Baghdad as well as US military personnel in Iraq. Iraq is in a complex position because it hosts American forces who are part of the US-led coalition to defeat the remnants of ISIS.
In addition, Iraq is home to tens of thousands of military members of the pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Forces, many of whom vehemently oppose the United States. These groups have targeted Israel with kamikaze drones, as well as targeting Americans. US Central Command head General Michael Kurilla told members of Congress on June 10 that Iranian-linked militias in Iraq are undermining the country.
Iraq was already facing a crisis prior to the Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliation. In May, the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq sent a delegation to Washington to sign energy deals that could be worth up to $110 billion with HKN Energy and WesternZagros.
In Baghdad, there was outrage. Baghdad has long clashed with the KRG over its energy policy. During the war on ISIS, when the KRG was largely cut off from Baghdad, it exported oil and developed its energy sector. However, that changed after ISIS was defeated and Baghdad sought to reassert control. A crisis in 2017 over the KRG’s drive for independence led to clashes in Kirkuk. Iranian-backed militias have used drones to attack energy fields in the Kurdistan region.
The battle between Baghdad and Erbil extends beyond energy. The Iraqi government has slashed KRG government salaries. Under pressure from Iran, it has also worked to disarm and relocate Kurdish dissident militias operating in Kurdistan.
Baghdad called the recent energy agreements “null and void.” In Washington, the Trump administration appeared to support the deals. Three days before the Israeli strikes on Iran, reports in Erbil indicated that the UN might help reduce tensions with Baghdad. Now, attention has shifted from the energy deals to the crisis next door in Iran.
Much is at stake in Iraq. US forces are slowly withdrawing from neighboring Syria. Iraq is a key logistics conduit for the US presence there, and the units stationed in Iraq help keep ISIS in check. US forces have enjoyed friendly ties with the KRG, even as they’ve faced threats in Baghdad and the rest of Iraq over the years.
The Trump administration has also attempted to get Baghdad to free a Princeton researcher named Elizabeth Tsurkov, who Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq, kidnapped in 2023. The US government sanctions Kataib Hezbollah as a foreign terrorist organization, and its former leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was killed in a drone strike in January 2020. Muhandis was in the same car as Iran’s IRGC Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in the same strike. The event illustrated the close connection between Iran and extremist militias in Iraq.
The big question now is what comes next in Iraq and how it will affect relations between the Kurdistan region, Baghdad, Washington, and Tehran. Iraq is facing a possible multi-week crisis as the war streaks through its skies. Iranian drones and missiles fly over Iraq, closing Iraq’s airports. Iraqis are on edge, with explosions reported across the country, which may be linked to the conflict. In the past, when tensions rose in the region, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq attacked US forces in the Kurdistan region. Iran has also targeted Erbil with missile attacks, claiming to target Israeli agents who reportedly operate there.
The Kurdish-Iranian dissident groups in northern Iraq have condemned Tehran in the wake of the Israeli strikes. “Due to its aggressive nature, deliberate provocation of crises, and systematic destabilization of regional and global security, the Iranian regime has now brought war to its own soil,” the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) said in a statement on June 13. The Free Life Party of Kurdistan (PJAK), a different anti-Iranian Kurdish party, has called for protests in Iran.
It’s possible the conflict between Iran and Israel could spill over to Iraq. That should be viewed as a major threat to regional stability. It’s also possible that the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq could use the war to inflame tensions with the United States or threaten US forces. Consequently, Erbil is increasingly important for the American posture in the region.
This is increasingly relevant in the wake of the recent crisis. The Kurdistan region is both relatively stable and economically successful compared to the rest of the country. However, it is surrounded by threats, including from Iran and Iranian-backed groups in Iraq. Preventing those threats from growing in the wake of the war in Iran is essential to Iraq’s stability and will help prevent threats to other neighbors.
About the Author: Seth Frantzman
Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets at @sfrantzman.
Image: Nicholas Hel / Shutterstock.com.
