Israel’s air defenses have always been limited by the amount of ammunition available. Iran understands this, and has tailored its missile capacity to engage in swarming tactics.
Arching into the night sky over Tehran on Wednesday night was a terrifying view that immediately went viral across social media. For days, the Iranian regime had vowed that it would retaliate in spectacular fashion against Israel for daring to initiate its air war last Thursday night against the Islamic Republic.
The image of the enormous white missile—blending to orange and red, evoking fire and death on a massive scale—streaking high in the Persian skies was intended to send a clear message to Israel and the United States. It was a reminder that Iran has weapons that can harm Israel—and American assets in the Middle East—in ways that have previously never been experienced.
The system Iran used is believed to have been its Khorramshahr-4 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), which has been shown leaving Iranian airspace and heading toward Tel Aviv. The Khorramshahr-4 is very different from most of the missiles that Iran has fired at Israel. It has a range of around 1,242 miles, which is more than sufficient to reach Israel from Iran.
The Khorramshahr-4 Missile’s Specifications
Iran’s Khorramshahr-4 carries a 3,307-to-3,968-pound warhead, which could include either a conventional high-explosive warhead or potentially submunitions for multiple target strikes. This weapon can reach Mach 16 outside the atmosphere and Mach 8 during re-entry, making it a high speed threat—as Western analysts watching the videos of this missile flying in the night sky noted with concern.
The missile’s propulsion uses hypergolic fuel, allowing rapid launch preparation—less than 12 minutes, according to most estimates—which reduces Israel’s window for pre-launch detection and preemptive destruction. Khorramshahr-4 missiles come equipped with maneuverable re-entry vehicles (MaRVs) with control fins and satellite navigation, enhancing accuracy and enabling evasive maneuvers during flight.
There are many things that have been said about the Khorramshahr-4, both by the apparently desperate Iranian regime as well as by many social media users. General Amir Ali Hajizadeh of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) told audiences recently that a single missile could “hit 80 targets” due to its submunitions, implying the potential for widespread impact.
Can the Iron Dome Stop the Khorramshahr-4?
While there is much about the current Israeli-Iran War that is smothered in misinformation, the fact remains that the Khorramashahr-4 IRBM’s deployment is a significant deployment. For starters, it is a real threat to Israel’s air defense systems. The Iron Dome short-range air defense system is likely unable to intercept it. Israel’s David’s Sling system might stand a better chance, but would also experience difficulty defending against this particular Iranian missile. The Arrow Two and Arrow Three high-altitude interception systems would be the most effective, but would struggle to knock down multiple warheads deployed from the Khorramashahr-4 as they make their way to the targets below.
What’s more, the powerful American-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system—designed to intercept missiles in their terminal phase, both within the atmosphere and above it—struggle against this Iranian missile. Because the Khorramashahr-4 travels at such high speeds, the missile shortens the reaction time for detection and interception among defending forces, even those as well-equipped as the Israelis are. That means there is a window of less than 12 minutes to respond once the missile is within range of its target.
The Khorramashahr-4’s high-altitude ballistic trajectory makes it a candidate for the aforementioned Arrow Three or THAAD systems, but the relative high speed and potential for late-stage maneuvers complicate targets even from these advanced systems. In fact, the missile’s reported maneuverability allows for it to alter its trajectory during re-entry, potentially evading interceptors like THAAD, which rely on predictive targeting.
Some reports suggest that the Khorramashahr-4 can deploy decoys to confuse enemy radar systems, reducing the effectiveness of the THAAD’s ability to track and accurately intercept the missile. If equipped with submunitions, the warhead could release multiple smaller projectiles, overwhelming defenses designed to intercept single warheads.
Israel’s defenders understandably highlight the advanced capabilities of Israel’s air defenses—which are likely the strongest on Earth. But Israel’s defenses were always limited by the number of systems available, as well as how much ammunition was around. Iran understands this, and has tailored its missile capacity to engage in swarming tactics specifically aimed at overwhelming and depleting Israel’s various Iron Dome capabilities.
Israel’s Air Defenses Can’t Keep Up With Iran’s Barrages
Iran has been effective in depleting Israeli air defenses with their early waves of missile strikes in retaliation for Israel’s initiation of the war last Thursday. What’s more, the Israeli defense industrial base as well as those of its allies, are strained and unable to keep up with current production demands for more Iron Dome-type air defenses and the ammunition that feeds them.
With a major regional war on, this defense industrial capacity is incredibly strained.
In summation, the introduction of the advanced Khorramashahr-4 missile in the ongoing war by the Islamic Republic suggests that Tehran believes it has sufficiently depleted Israeli air defenses, and are now moving to get vengeance for Israel’s attacks.
We don’t yet know if the Khorramashahr-4 launch was largely successful in its strike on Tel Aviv. That is because both Israeli and Iranian sources are doing their level best to obfuscate the facts on the ground, attempting to win more positive coverage for their side. Still, given the capabilities rolled into the Khorramashahr-4 and the fact that Israel is running low on air defenses, it is likely that Iran did some damage—even if it never goes acknowledged by either the Israeli government or the Western media.
The war is far from over—and Israel’s troubles may only be beginning. Israeli intelligence assesses that Iran has around 1,800 ballistic missiles remaining in its arsenal, 400 of which have been fired at Israel since the start of the conflict. If these numbers are to be believed—Iran predictably claims that its arsenal is far larger—then it would seem that this war between Israel and Iran is really a race to the bottom in terms of ammunition and missiles. Both sides are waging a war of depletion.
If that is the case, barring the introduction of the two powers’ global allies into the fray, the war will be won by the side that runs out of munitions first. But the Khorramashahr-4 IRBM should not be underestimated by either Israeli or American security experts. And its introduction into this gruesome fight signals an escalation that many analysts believed was impossible, given the effectiveness of Israel’s early strikes on Iran last week.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / travelarium.ph.
