Faulty intelligence about the capability of China’s PL-15 air-to-air missiles gave Indian pilots a false sense of confidence.
China may have fresh ammunition in its war of words over the downing of an Indian Air Force Dassault Rafale this past spring. Diplomats from the People’s Republic of China, as well as open-source military analysts on social media, engaged in a campaign that put into question the capabilities and effectiveness of the French-made omnirole fighter.
Paris accused China of engaging in a disinformation campaign to sow doubts about the Rafale. However, the loss of the fighter jet by India may have been due to the Indian Air Force underestimating the capabilities of the Chinese-made PL-15 air-to-air missile.
Reuters first reported that on the evening of May 7, 2025, a Pakistani Air Force Chengdu J-10C Vigorous Dragon (NATO reporting name “Firebird”) fired the PL-15 at the IAF Rafale at a range of 200 km (125 miles). That exceeded the IAF’s estimated capabilities of the ordnance, especially at night.
Pakistani officials have claimed that three French-made Dassault Rafales were shot down, a figure disputed by New Delhi, which has acknowledged that one of the aircraft was shot down. However, even the loss of one of the Rafale fighters was enough to signal alarms regarding the effectiveness of Western military platforms when facing what are largely untested Chinese systems.
According to a report from Reuters, which cited two Indian officials as well as three of their Pakistani counterparts, the faulty intelligence about the PL-15 gave the Rafale pilots a “false sense of confidence,” and the aviators believed they were beyond the range of the Pakistani aircraft. IAF pilots were reportedly instructed that the export model of the PL-15 carried by the Chinese-made J-10C had a range of 150 kilometers (94 miles).
“The Indians were not expecting to be shot at,” Justin Bronk, air warfare expert at London’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think-tank, told Reuters. “And the PL-15 is clearly very capable at long range.”
Pakistan’s Air Force Just Scored One of the Longest Kills on Record
The Pakistan Air Force has alleged that the Rafale was downed at approximately 200 km. If such a claim were true, it would make the May downing of the French-made fighter among the longest-range air-to-air ever recorded—surpassed only by an R-37M long-range air-to-air missile (LRAAM) fired by a Russian Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting name “Felon”) in October 2022, which downed a Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-27 (NATO reporting name “Flanker”) at a range of 217 km (140 miles).
In May, images of a PAF J-10C were shared on social media, denoting the fighter as a “Rafale Killer” and an official “kill mark” on the side of the Pakistani aircraft.
India Underestimated Pakistan’s Capabilities
The downing of the IAF’s Rafale was attributed to the PAF’s enhanced intelligence sharing and networking, which integrated “air, land, and space sensors.” That “Data Link 17” was able to pass radar tracks on the IAF aircraft to the J-10Cs, which could turn off their radar and fly undetected.
However, as David Cenciotti explained in a report for The Aviationist, this does not mean that Chinese hardware is in any way superior to Western-made platforms. Cenciotti explained, however, that the India-Pakistan clash “does show how a coherent network, fielded and rehearsed, can erase a platform or a numbers gap.”
Moreover, the PAF also benefited from its Swedish-made Saab 2000 Erieye Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEWC) aircraft, which was able to pass on data on the location of the IAF warplanes.
Finally, even after the May 7 air sortie, the Indian military succeeded in targeting Pakistani military infrastructure. On May 10, India claimed to have carried out strikes on nine PAF air bases and multiple radar sites employing the Indian-made BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles.
India also accused Pakistan of receiving “live input” from Beijing that may have included radar and satellite feeds. Islamabad denied the allegation.
As previously reported by Brandon J. Weichert for The National Interest, India has claimed to have captured a Chinese-made PL-15 missile that suffered a mishap and did not self-destruct. There is now speculation that capturing the missile will allow New Delhi to reverse engineer the technology, or at least better determine its capabilities.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a thirty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
Image: Shutterstock / Rehan Waheed
