The US and Israel crippled Iran’s nuclear program and leadership, but uncertainty looms as Tehran weighs retaliation, risking regional escalation or internal unrest amid growing public discontent.
In the days before the United States military carried out its strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, the question that was asked was what would happen afterward. How might the Islamic Republic respond, and could we see regional escalation?
The simple answer is that we simply don’t know.
While the Trump administration has sought to conclude the hostilities, it could be easier said than done. Tehran has vowed to respond, which could further drag the US into yet another conflict in the Middle East.
Was Israel’s Attack a Success?
In the immediate short term, it would appear that Israel has succeeded in ensuring that Iran isn’t able to build a nuclear weapon for some time.
“Israel seems to have achieved its primary war aim, which is to end or significantly delay Iran’s nuclear program,” said Dr. Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of national security and political science at the University of New Haven.
Given the situation Iran is in right now, the other question is how it could even be able to strike back at the US? Tehran’s only option might be to hurt America at the gas pump rather than a military strike at US army bases, which would only further escalate the conflict.
“Iran might attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, or the Houthis in Yemen may go back to attacking shipping on the Mandab Strait on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula,” explained Andrew Borene, executive director for global security at threat intelligence firm Flashpoint.
“Either option is bad for Iran, but closing the Strait of Hormuz on the near side to Iran would ultimately be like poisoning their wells,” Borene told The National Interest.
“Not only do its Arab neighbors export oil and liquid natural gas via the eastern waterway, but so does Iran itself. Disrupting Iran’s exports to Asia would harm their economy further, and likely agitate China, which is a large market for Iran’s deliveries.”
The next phase of Iran’s war with Israel will very much hinge upon Tehran’s immediate choices.
“The hope, of course, is that faced with almost assured further debilitating destruction if they don’t negotiate now, the Ayatollah and military leaders could take an off-ramp to save their existing non-nuclear assets and military capabilities,” said Borene.
“The most frightening outcome would be if Iran lashes out through cyber attacks or terrorism that harms innocents from the US, Europe, or Arab states that have been disengaged so far from Israel’s war campaign,” Borene continued.
“Preparation for any of these outcomes means accepting that it’s possible Iran will not choose to allow yesterday to serve as the peak of the violence in this war. They do now have the opportunity to de-escalate.”
Will Iran Survive the Attacks?
Israel’s strikes last week and America’s follow-up attacks on Sunday morning certainly damaged the nuclear program significantly. But the bigger impact may have been in Israel targeting so many within the country’s senior leadership.
“[It] decimated Iran’s military leadership and a large portion of its political leadership because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also exerts political control,” Schmidt told The National Interest.
The IRGC would put down any revolution on the streets. The country may be ripe for change from within, but there is no unified opposition to the ruling government.
“The short order is that the middle class opposes the regime. They want economic opportunity and an everyday life, but the working class is with the regime, basically against the middle class, and they have the numbers,” Schmidt warned. “So, who arises from that middle-class section to lead a credible opposition? And there just isn’t anyone right now.”
Israel may still have cards to play. Just as it carried out its pager attack on the Iranian-backed Hezbollah last year, and set up a drone-making facility within Iran, Mossad continues to operate from the shadows.
Schmidt further noted that Mossad agents were able to track the whereabouts of the generals who were killed in the strikes last week, and they likely know exactly where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at any given time. Some of this intelligence is being provided to Israel’s Mossad via members of the Iranian middle class.
“That’s how much discontent there is,” said Schmidt. “And they’re all from the educated middle class section of the country. So there’s a possibility, there’s more possibility today, I would say, of the regime collapsing and of there being a credible opposition to take power than there has been since 1979.”
Yet, the chances of a full-blown uprising starting are still slim, and Schmidt gave just a 20 percent chance of that happening.
“The risk to anyone who steps out to assemble this kind of movement is extremely high. They’re life and death,” he warned. “And that means that the likelihood is still that people will wait and see. I would look if you start to see large chunks of the regime flee the country, and then that becomes a sign that they’re concerned that they can’t hold on to power.”
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a thirty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
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