Every military asset moved to the Middle East is one that could be used to deter China in the Indo-Pacific.
There are many reasons why the Trump administration should refrain from further entangling the United States in Israel’s war on Iran. Iran is a relatively weak country halfway around the world and poses no serious threat to core US interests. If you liked the failed forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, you’d love the quagmire of a war in Iran—a country of 90 million people with a significantly stronger military than those two countries.
But Israel appears intent on drawing the United States into this destabilizing war of choice. Because Israel can’t totally eliminate Iran’s nuclear program alone, it has urged the United States to intervene directly.
A joint US-Israeli war in Iran harms American interests and would threaten American lives while draining resources and diverting strategic attention from pressing priorities. Indeed, one of the most crucial reasons why Washington needs to stay out of the war is that it serves as a distraction from more critical strategic challenges. Chief among those is managing tensions with China.
Since the October 7 attacks, the United States has surged ships, personnel, and other materiel to the region to protect Israel and deter Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” allies. In some cases, these military assets have been repositioned from the Indo-Pacific, where they are stationed in large part to deal with potential Chinese threats.
Before the Trump administration reached a ceasefire with Yemen’s Houthis in May, US commanders expressed concern that the military would have to move long-range precision weapons stockpiles from the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East. The US military expended massive amounts of munitions to fight a militia that couldn’t even take over one of the poorest countries in the world. What kind of resources would it have to marshal—and from where—to prosecute a war against a state like Iran with serious military capabilities?
In April, Washington relocated missile defense batteries, a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, and the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier from Asia to the Middle East. The military is further shifting resources and moving ships and other assets to the region in light of Israel’s attack on Iran and the ongoing back-and-forth between the two countries. On Monday, Reuters reported that the USS Nimitz left the South China Sea and was heading west toward the Middle East.
These military assets and the roughly 40,000 American personnel in the region are now especially vulnerable to Iranian attacks. Before Israel’s attack, Tehran vowed to strike US targets in the region if its nuclear sites were targeted. Now that threat could become a reality that sucks America into a pointless war while diverting attention away from China, which the Trump administration and several previous presidents have said is that biggest threat to the United States.
While China’s efforts—and wherewithal—to dominate the Middle East are overhyped, Beijing does have considerable interests that a regional war would threaten. First and foremost, China relies heavily on the region for its energy supplies, with half of its imported oil coming from the Persian Gulf. Iran and China also have a strong relationship, and Beijing would not like to see the destruction of the regime in Tehran, an important node in China’s effort to flout the US-led international order.
However, a war with Iran would offer significant, albeit short-term, strategic benefits for China on issues of greater importance. Beijing could take advantage of a distracted United States by making more aggressive moves against Taiwan or in the South China Sea. The US military’s relocation of assets and attention gives China much-needed strategic breathing room in its backyard.
Moreover, China can ramp up the playbook it has used post-October 7 to gain the upper hand in its geopolitical tussle for influence with the United States—a contest it is already winning. A war with Iran would further underscore Beijing’s argument that the rules-based order only applies to Washington’s adversaries. The United States rightly called out Russia for illegally invading Ukraine. But under what pretext would the United States join a war against Iran? These kinds of double standards have driven droves of Global South countries into China’s embrace and undermined American competition with its strategic rival.
President Trump often extols his record of not starting new wars during his first administration. Although that record is a bit more complex than Trump says, joining Israel’s war would certainly betray that legacy and be seen as an act of perfidy by the millions of Americans who voted for a president who promised to pursue peace.
For years, Republican and Democratic presidents have pledged to “pivot to Asia” and prioritize competition with China, America’s only near-peer competitor. The new Trump administration came into office making the same promises. Yet nearly all these presidents have entangled America’s attention and resources in the Middle East, a region of declining strategic significance to US interests.
If Trump wants to preserve his “no new wars” legacy, he needs to stay out of Iran. It would also give him the opportunity to be the president who finally and fully reoriented US priorities and attention to the Indo-Pacific.
About the Author: Adam Gallagher
Adam Gallagher is a contributing fellow at Defense Priorities and a strategic leaders fellow at the John Quincy Adams Society. Follow him on X @AEGallagher10.
Image: Viper-Zero / Shutterstock.com
