Russia is not all that concerned about the humiliation of Iran despite its strategic partnership.
For Vladimir Putin, the recent war in the Middle East represents an opportunity. At first glance, it seemed like the United States and Israel’s military strikes against the Iranian nuclear program were tantamount to a strategic setback for the Kremlin as well, given Russia’s longstanding support for the Islamic Republic. Nevertheless, Russia is deftly seizing the moment, not to save Iran, but to reassert itself on the world stage, offset Western sanctions, and shift momentum in the war in Ukraine.
Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has leaned heavily on Tehran to sustain its military campaign. Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones filled a critical gap in Russia’s arsenal, enabling relentless strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. In 2023, the partnership deepened when the two countries signed a deal to co-produce Iranian drones in Russia’s Tatarstan region, embedding Iranian technology into Russia’s domestic defense production.
The effect has been transformative. Since the partnership began, Moscow’s strike capabilities have increased dramatically, leading to a massive increase in the scope and volume of drone attacks on Ukraine. Yet, this Russo-Iranian cooperation has stopped short of a formal defense commitment. Even the recently ratified Iranian-Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which expands military, economic, and political collaboration between Moscow and Tehran, conspicuously lacks a mutual defense clause. This shortcoming left Iran stranded in the face of recent escalation from the West.
Indeed, when Israel and the United States struck Iranian nuclear facilities in late June, Tehran’s calls for support went largely unanswered. What it received instead was a carefully worded condemnation from Moscow, and little else. For all the military assistance Iran has given Russia in its war with Ukraine, Putin appears uninterested in returning the favor.
Perhaps that’s because, with Russia’s long-range drone supply chain secured, Iran’s role as a critical supplier for Moscow’s war is waning. Instead, Russia can capitalize on a weakened and isolated Iran, dependent on Russian support, to serve a far more valuable purpose: diplomatic relevance.
Indeed, as tensions surged, Putin wasted no time flexing his position as the only world leader with open lines to all sides. In the following days, Putin held direct talks with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, and US president Donald Trump. Later, at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Russia, alongside its Chinese and Pakistani counterparts, called for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Middle East.
These actions are not driven by a desire to de-escalate the crisis. Rather, they reflect Moscow’s desire to exploit it. Russia is leveraging the crisis to reassert itself as a central diplomatic actor in the region, much as it did during the original 2015 JCPOA negotiations. And while Washington seems unlikely to embrace Moscow as a partner in future negotiations, Putin can still use his government’s ties to Iran to craft the illusion of regional diplomatic relevance and reinforce that image among non-Western powers.
Meanwhile, the Iran-Israel war has provided an unexpected boost to the Russian economy. Due to the G7-imposed $60 price cap, oil revenues in Russia have fallen by a third since last year. However, market concerns over conflict in the Middle East have triggered a jump in oil prices. Urals crude is now trading above the threshold, potentially unlocking billions in additional revenue for Russia’s war chest. At the same time, disruptions to Iranian oil exports could drive reliant states like China to turn increasingly to Russian supplies as a safe alternative.
The biggest gain for Russia, however, lies not in diplomacy or oil but in the ongoing uncertainty of Western resolve in Ukraine. Although President Trump has since pledged to increase defense weapon shipments to Kyiv following reports of a Pentagon “weapons pause,” Washington’s strategic focus is increasingly stretched, particularly now as it navigates heightened instability in the Middle East. For Russia, US debates over strategic posture may provide an opening to regroup and potentially accelerate its campaign in Ukraine anew. While Moscow’s territorial gains have slowed over the course of the war, rising oil revenues and Washington’s faltering commitments could help reverse that trend.
In parallel, Russia’s state media and disinformation networks are already exploiting the crisis, pushing a narrative that portrays the United States as reckless and destabilizing. The aim is clear: to erode trust in American leadership among Western allies and wary partners in the Global South.
The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran is thus not a regional crisis for Putin, but a strategic opportunity. And, as President Trump contemplates next steps in the aftermath of the Israel-Iran war, his Russian counterpart is positioning himself to end up as the real winner of it.
About the Author: Calla O’Neil
Calla O’Neil is a researcher at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC.
Image: Madina Nurmanova / Shutterstock.com.
