American reliance on Chinese rare earths did not develop overnight, and there is no overnight solution. Yet key steps must be taken to address it as soon as possible.
President Donald Trump’s steadfast belief in the efficacy of trade wars is being undermined in real time by China’s strategic dominance in critical minerals. In December 2024, Beijing escalated its response to US tech restrictions by banning exports of gallium and germanium to the United States—materials essential for advanced semiconductors, including gallium nitride (GaN)-based chips. These third-generation semiconductors are vital for high-performance electronics in defense, telecommunications, and emerging technologies.
China’s move—described by the South China Morning Post as a “silent sanction” targeting the US semiconductor industry and its military capabilities—prompted a noticeable shift in the Trump administration’s tone. Since the bans, Trump has publicly praised Chinese President Xi Jinping and highlighted agreements to resume mineral flows, signaling a retreat from earlier aggressive rhetoric.
In essence, the United States has conceded ground in the trade war it started, underscoring Washington’s failure to address its heavy dependence on China for these resources.
China’s Rare Earths Stranglehold Over America Is a Major Problem
China controls approximately 94 to 98 percent of global gallium production and 60 to 83 percent of germanium, according to industry estimates from sources like the Critical Raw Materials Alliance and U.S. Geological Survey data. Beyond mining, Beijing dominates refining, having invested heavily since 2010 to consolidate the supply chain.
This vulnerability extends deeply into US military applications, where gallium and germanium enable next-generation electronics for radar, communications, and weaponry.
During Trump’s first term, his “tech war” against China—later continued by President Biden—focused on restricting Beijing’s access to high-end semiconductors to curb its technological rise and enforce compliance with US-led international norms. While this initially hampered China, Beijing soon developed workarounds, including domestic chip advancements.
Conversely, the United States lacked alternatives to China’s mineral monopoly, allowing Beijing to counter by withholding the raw inputs needed for those very chips.
The escalation highlights a mutual vulnerability: America can work to limit China’s chip imports, but China can also choke off the materials required to produce them. With reserves and production heavily concentrated in China—estimated at over 68 percent of global gallium resources—Beijing holds leverage that has forced Trump into conciliatory gestures.
In short, far from dictating terms, America is now prioritizing stable supplies, even as Trump threatens tariffs as high as 200 percent if flows falter. GaN chips, in particular, are pivotal for artificial intelligence (AI), a sector where the US seeks global leadership. These energy-efficient alternatives to silicon could slash AI data center power consumption by up to 30 percent, per the South China Morning Post. As AI drives booms in real estate (for data centers) and energy demand, China’s control over GaN precursors positions it to challenge American tech giants in the AI race, bypassing U.S. tariffs and restrictions.
China Has Spent Years Building Up Chip Robustness. America Hasn’t.
The era when US leaders could bully China into submission has ended. Beijing’s bold investments have fortified its position against external pressure, leaving America exposed to critical minerals shortages. Trump’s effusive praise for Xi, and his recent willingness to admit 600,000 Chinese students despite his broader anti-immigration stance, stem not from goodwill but from a desperate need to appease Beijing and secure mineral supplies.
How can Trump solve this problem? For one thing, instead of seeking out unwinnable trade battles, Trump should pivot to domestic solutions. It is clear that, for all the claims in the West about the fragility of China’s authoritarian model, President Xi has been moving toward making China an anti-fragile state.
“Anti-fragility” is a concept coined by economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It basically means a system that not only recovers from shocks or volatility but actually benefits from them. The shocks make the anti-fragile institution stronger and more resilient rather than tearing that institution apart.
How does this apply to China? In 2021, Beijing announced the beginning of a “New Development Stage” for the country—endeavoring to “build a resilient and adaptive state [that] is capable of taking the global lead over the next decades,” according to Nis Grünberg of Merics. China’s assiduous conquest of the world’s rare earth mineral market is but one example of this trend.
America Must Tap Its Own Rare Earths Supplies—and Allies’
American reliance on Chinese rare earths did not develop overnight, and there is no overnight solution. Yet key steps must be taken to address it as soon as possible.
First and foremost, Trump must direct the Environmental Protection Agency to streamline regulations for developing America’s untapped rare earth and critical mineral reserves. The administration must advance a plan to collaborate with Congress to fund and modernize US processing facilities, which are outdated and insufficient to meet current demand.
Finally, the president must forge partnerships with allies like Australia, Canada, and even Russia to diversify global supplies and reduce reliance on China. Trump has spent much of his second presidency antagonizing those allies through tariffs and hostile rhetoric; this should be reversed as quickly as possible. Only through cooperation can the US regain strategic independence from China in this high-stakes arena.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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