Trump still has time to act, but what path will he take?
Donald Trump’s bold promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours—later stretched to 100 days—has brought no results. Moreover, Russia has intensified both its attempts to occupy even more Ukrainian territory and its brutal attacks on the civilian population, including its demonstrative attack on American companies in Ukraine. The Alaska summit became an embarrassing humiliation for the US Army, rolling out the red carpet before the dictator and the nation as a whole.
The failure stems from a profound misunderstanding of the nature of this war and, more broadly, the essence of Russia. Yet, unlike his predecessors, Trump still has a chance to defeat Russia.
For centuries, the existence of the Russian empire—whether under the names of the Russian Empire, the USSR, or the Russian Federation—has revolved around territorial expansion and the colonization of nations. Every time Russia has faced collapse, the West has intervened to rescue it. The most recent example was the early 1990s, when dozens of nations sought sovereignty and independence after the USSR’s fall but were crushed by Moscow. Russia’s wars against the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria turned into a genocide of the Chechen people—while the West looked on in silence.
After crushing independence movements internally, Moscow resumed its external expansion: occupying parts of the Republic of Georgia in 2008, invading Crimea and Donbas in 2014, and launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Beyond its neighborhood, the Kremlin has sought global influence—participating in the Syria war, deploying paramilitary forces in Africa, and activating sabotage networks across the West, from assassinating opponents to backing anti-Western political movements.
The Russian crimes and atrocities were enabled by the Western hesitation—sometimes open support, more often silent approval in exchange for economic benefits. The impunity for past aggression emboldened the Kremlin to commit new ones. Even after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Western response was strong but limited to putting Ukraine in “survival mode.”
Now, striding on the red carpet on US soil, Vladimir Putin feels untouchable. In his turn, Trump faces three basic scenarios:
1. Saving criminal Putin. De facto, this has been Washington’s default approach since the president’s inauguration. If Trump continues down this path, he will be remembered as the weakest US president—the one who knelt to dictators. Moreover, just as appeasement of Adolf Hitler led to World War II, similar treatment of Putin could well trigger World War III.
2. Much ado about nothing, or Biden 2.0. Realizing appeasement does not bring peace, Trump could revert to the cautious policy of his predecessor: support Ukraine “as long as it takes,” but limiting this help to the country’s survival level. This may lead to Ukraine’s victory in the long term when the dire situation within Russia leads to its implosion. But the price for Ukraine could be staggering: immense civilian and military losses. And in the worst case, Ukraine could fall before Russia does.
3. The American hero. Or even more than American—a world hero. Under this path, Trump would hear the overwhelming support of the American people for Ukraine. This was visible even during the Alaska summit—Anchorage turned yellow and blue in solidarity. The US president would impose real sanctions on Russia, provide decisive military support to Ukraine, and even go further: support the colonized nations inside the Russian Federation in their fight for independence. This would not only end Russia’s genocidal war on Ukraine but would stop Moscow’s extermination of entire peoples. Moreover, this scenario would open the door to a new world order—with vast political and trade opportunities for the United States in northern Eurasia.
Trump still has time to choose and implement any of these scenarios. The question is: which path will he take?
About the Author: Tara Byk
Taras Byk is a board member of the Ukrainian NGO Decolonization.
Image: Eremin Aleksey / Shutterstock.com
