Can countries like the UAE maintain their balancing act—or will they be forced to choose sides in a new global rivalry?
As the United States and China sharpen their global rivalry, countries in the Middle East are increasingly finding themselves caught in the crosshairs of a competition they neither invited nor particularly welcome. Few places feel this tension more acutely than the UAE, an economic hub that has thrived on open trade, global connectivity, and a strategic neutrality that may soon be harder to maintain.
In the first episode of the Center for the National Interest’s new podcast Divergences, Mohammed Baharoon, Director General of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center (b’huth), offers a regional insider’s view of how the Emirati leadership is thinking through this geopolitical moment. Speaking with host Joshua Yaphe, Baharoon is clear-eyed about the risks: competition between Washington and Beijing is not just a diplomatic issue; it’s bad for business.
Dubai’s model, Baharoon argues, depends on frictionless supply chains and a commitment to being a global hub for trade and innovation. “[U.S.-China rivalry] can affect the supply chain, which we perceive as the blood circulation system,” he warns. “If we get clots, we’re going to have a cardiac arrest.” For Gulf states, the implications of strategic competition stretch from tariffs to blocked technology deals, leaving businesses and governments to craft a balancing act, one that must increasingly factor U.S.-China dynamics into everything from banking risk assessments to long-term infrastructure planning.
The discussion covers a range of urgent issues: the absence of viable U.S. alternatives during the Huawei 5G saga, the cultural edge the U.S. still holds through its soft power and educational reach, and the growing prominence of China in Emirati daily life, from household goods to neighborhood demographics. Baharoon also discusses how American influence could remain strong, not by pressuring partners, but by offering more competitive value.
Artificial intelligence and the next generation of strategic industries loom large in the discussion, as does the region’s coming energy shift. Baharoon is skeptical of the term “energy transition,” preferring “energy security,” and predicts the divide of the future won’t be between fossil-fuel and green economies, but between those with access to transformative technology and those without it.
In a world where “alignment” is no longer a given, the Emirates are betting on agility. Whether that bet holds in the face of mounting global polarization remains to be seen.
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You can also listen to this episode on Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
Image: Dubai Marina (photo by Judith Scharnowski via Pixabay)
