Why would the military consider expanding its commitment by investing in the fantastical sixth-generation fighter jets until it can resolve the issues with the fifth-generation ones?
On paper, Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation multirole warplane is one of the most advanced planes ever made. In reality, though, the plane has large failed to meet its expectations—and has yet to truly prove itself in combat.
That’s why some of America’s best technological minds, notably aerospace CEO-turned-Trump confidant Elon Musk, have spent a considerable time publicly trashing the F-35 program as a “multi-billion-dollar betrayal of the American taxpayer and our national security.”
And with the F-35’s record—and the tremendous expenses associated with its development and ongoing use—how can anyone blame Musk?
What’s Wrong with the F-35 Fighter Jet?
Remember, the total acquisition and sustainment costs of the F-35 Lightning II now exceed $2 trillion (in U.S. dollars). Keep in mind that the original F-35 program was set to cost around $233 billion—less than one-eighth its current cost—when the program was initially sold to the Department of Defense.
For eight times the money, one might reasonably hope that the F-35 could be built well. Yet not only has the F-35 struggled with significant cost overruns: it has encountered tremendous timeline delays, due to the advanced nature of the F-35 program as well as America’s struggling defense industrial base.
And this week, Musk claimed that F-35s were being delivered to the U.S. military in conditions that are unacceptable. According to Musk, Lockheed has been delivering F-35s to the Defense Department that are “simply not ready for combat.” The tech tycoon went on to cite problems with the F-35’s radar systems, software delays, and an overall lack in progress in operational testing.
The Pentagon’s Sunk Cost Fallacy
The Pentagon seems to be operating on a sunk cost fallacy. They’ve been committed to developing this plane since the 1990s. After 30 years, the Defense Department cannot countenance abandoning it—even though it has yet to fully deliver on its extravagant promises.
Of course, the Pentagon seems more than open to the idea of spending tax dollars on an even more experimental system that will likely never deliver on the promises of its designers: the proposed “F-47 NGAD” sixth-generation warplane.
But why would the military even consider expanding its commitment by investing in the fantastical sixth-generation warplanes until it can resolve the issues with their fifth-generation ones?
Most officials within the Trump administration seemingly prefer not to engage with these questions. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently crowed that the FY2026 defense budget would be the first in history to exceed $1 trillion. Conversely, Musk, who for better or worse created and leads the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), is one of the few who is powerful enough to hold corrupt and inefficient defense contractors accountable.
Silicon Valley Can Shake Up the Beltway
One can only hope that Musk and his tech entrepreneur colleagues—notably Peter Thiel, Marc Andressen, Palmer Luckey, and a handful of others—get together and create a defense consortium to rival the existing interlocking complex of major defense contractors, such as Lockheed, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman.
While the older defense contractors build systems that are far too expensive and unprepared for the battlefield, Musk’s rival group could produce relevant systems that are affordable and efficient.
If Hegseth’s plans are unchanged, and Congress signs off, the Pentagon is set to receive a $1 trillion budget next year. Rather than wasting more of that money on another manned warplane system that is certain to run into the same delays and cost overruns as the F-35, why not get more bang for our buck by purchasing systems that Musk and his comrades will produce?
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Frederic Legrand – COMEO.
