From the outset of Trump’s diplomacy attempt, the Russians have been clear: the only way to a peace negotiation is for the US and NATO to stop flooding Ukraine with weapons.
“We’re going to send some more weapons [to Ukraine]. They have to be able to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very hard now. They’re getting hit very hard. We’re going to have to send more weapons, defensive weapons primarily, but they’re getting hit very, very hard.” So said President Donald Trump during a recent meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—resuming the vital lifeline of supplies that have kept Ukraine afloat in its ongoing three-year war against Russia.
Trump Puts Elbridge Colby in the Hot Seat
This move by President Trump, with both Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CIA Director John Ratcliffe sitting to his left at the table in the White House, was a direct presidential countermand to a move by Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby last week.
To be clear, Colby is one of the few remaining true Trump-aligned realists in a senior role at the Pentagon. He is surrounded by neoconservatives who have pushed constantly to send whatever arms and funds the Americans can proffer to Ukraine.
Colby’s decision to temporarily halt the arms shipments intended for Ukraine came after a classified review was conducted of America’s arsenals. That review apparently found that the cupboards were nearly bare—and Colby calculated that America should not hand over its few remaining key systems to Ukraine rather than keeping those defensive systems in reserve, in the event the United States required these weapons somewhere else.
Critics of Colby immediately lambasted him, launching an unremitting mudslinging campaign across social media for the three days leading into Netanyahu’s visit on Monday of this week. When Trump publicly decided to reverse Colby’s order to halt aid to Ukraine, he publicly undermined one of the most effective members of his administration—and weakened America by draining its arsenals for a losing cause.
What Is Trump Really Trying to Achieve by Restoring Ukraine Aid?
Trump’s decision was also a significant reversal from his stated policy aims. According to Trump throughout the campaign last year, he just wanted to “stop the killing.” Then-candidate Trump insisted that he desired above all else to get the combatants in the war—mainly Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy—to meet with him and hash out a peace agreement.
As president, however, Trump has changed his tune. He has expressed continual outrage about Putin, infamously describing the Russian president as “absolutely crazy,” after Russia launched a massive missile attack against Ukraine at a time when the Russians were meeting with American representatives to discuss peace terms over Ukraine. Trump had not been briefed on an alleged assassination attempt against Putin the weekend before those strikes, targeting his presidential helicopter deep inside Russia.
Later, as Trump was supposed to be engaged in negotiations with Putin, Ukraine conducted its “Operation Spiderweb,” a shocking drone attack deep inside Russia that targeted key Russian long-range bombers. Either Trump was not aware of what was happening, or he was, but continued negotiating with Russia while America’s Ukrainian allies plotted to strike Russia in such a way that would undermine the negotiations.
From the outset of Trump’s diplomacy attempt, the Russians have been clear: the only way to a peace negotiation is for the US and NATO to stop flooding Ukraine with weapons. The Trump administration has refused at every turn. Between that refusal and the constant antagonism from the West toward Russia during a time when peace should be on the menu, the war has continued—largely to Russia’s benefit
Russia Is Losing Faith in Trump’s Mediation
It has now been six months since Trump began his second non-consecutive term. If Trump truly wanted peace, he would have been at the negotiating table now, not doing a will-they-won’t-they dance with Putin. For their part, the Russians have all the pieces in place to strike decisively against Ukraine regardless of what the Americans and their NATO partners do. And Moscow’s forces are now unrelentingly and unapologetically blasting Ukraine apart.
The fact of the matter is that the Russians simply do not need a deal with Trump and the Americans. Plus, Moscow now believes that Trump is either not serious about getting a deal—or else is influenced by forces inimical to a deal in both Washington and Brussels. There is also speculation that America’s European NATO partners are planning to escalate on their own in Ukraine, trigger a direct retaliation from Russia, and then invoke Article V of the NATO Charter—thereby forcing the United States to commit militarily to defending whatever is left of Ukraine.
This, by the way, is Kyiv’s dearest wish. Because if negotiations are off, with the Russians galvanized as never before against Ukraine, and the Europeans spasmodically trying to provoke the bear into greater military action against Europe, if the government in Kyiv wants to survive whatever Putin has planned for it, they will need direct US military involvement.
Trump Is Making Dangerous Moves in Ukraine
All this comes as the United States and NATO run out of precious ammunition and weapons—and their defense industrial base is simply unable to replenish the lost supplies in time. Elbridge Colby saw this, and it prompted him to call for the cessation of military aid to Ukraine.
But Trump, a man preternaturally disinterested in pesky details such as the size and availability of America’s arms—and with a false sense of its invincibility—overrode that cautionary order from Colby. Trump thought he was helping. Perhaps Trump believes by playing hardball with the Russians, he might force them to come to the table and be more amenable. But he is wrong.
So long as the Russians have the leverage that they currently have, Moscow has no real need to negotiate, other than to try to create a more favorable modus vivendi with the Trump administration. Instead, the Trump administration is merely prolonging an unwinnable war in Ukraine—and risking the national security of the United States in the process.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Dmytro Larin.
