Any attempt to confront the Mexican cartels could end in open war—requiring tens of thousands of American soldiers to fight an enemy as determined as any in the Middle East.
In 1971, President Richard Nixon initiated the “War on Drugs.” More than five decades later, researchers and drug policy experts have reached the consensus that the government’s decades-long campaign has not reduced drug use, or done much to disrupt the drug trade. A June 2011 report from the Global Commission on Drug Policy found that criminalization efforts had not worked. In fact, over time, the situation has gotten worse, driven by a wave of fatalities that were the result of over-prescription of opioid-based painkillers—which in many cases served as a gateway to heroin and fentanyl.
In spite of these past failures, President Donald Trump has called for a new campaign in the war on drugs, one that could involve military force against the drug cartels, which the administration deemed terrorist organizations. The New York Times first reported that Trump signed a directive ordering the Pentagon to prepare military options for use against the cartels. This does not necessarily mean the military will be involved in any operations, but it means that it is planning for them.
Trump Is Already Using the Military to Fight the Cartels
The US Navy has already deployed warships to carry out drug interdiction missions on both coasts. At the same time, US military personnel have been dispatched to the southern border to help address the migrant crisis. The question is whether the US military could soon play a larger role, including direct confrontation with the cartels.
“Well, Latin America’s got a lot of cartels, and they’ve got a lot of drugs flowing. So, you know, we want to protect our country. We have to protect our country. We haven’t been doing it for four years. And we love this country like they love their countries. We have to protect our country,” Trump told reporters last week.
He added, “We’re playing a tough game, but we’ll have more to say about that soon.”
Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, has already fired back against any planned US military operations against the cartels in her country. While her government has been working closely with the United States to curb both the flow of migrants and drugs into the United States, Sheinbaum ruled out any military action that could include US military personnel in Mexico.
“The United States is not going to come to Mexico with the military. We cooperate, we coordinate, but there won’t be an invasion… that is ruled out,” she explained last week.
In 2006, Mexico Declared War on the Cartels—to Disastrous Results
Mexico knows firsthand what an armed confrontation with the drug cartels could look like. Shortly after being elected in late 2006, Mexico’s then-newly elected President Felipe Calderón launched an all-out war on drugs, which included dispatching 6,500 Mexican Army soldiers to end drug violence.
Instead of curbing the drug trade, the war resulted in a bloodbath. In the nearly two decades since that operation began, the cartels’ influence has expanded beyond Mexico’s borders. Unlike past organized crime syndicates that largely tried to avoid “civilian” casualties in the United States, the Mexican cartels have shown no such concerns.
Throughout the history of organized crime, killing “innocent” people was considered bad for business. Throughout the twentieth century, organized crime in the United States—long dominated by tightly-knit Irish, Italian, and Jewish organized crime families—had followed an unwritten code avoiding violence and attempting to keep a low profile. The Mexican and Latin American cartels have no such code; thousands of innocent individuals, including children, have been caught in the crossfire during clashes between rival gangs.
All of that could seem like a good excuse for the US military to send in the troops and take out the cartels. The problem is that these groups, which Trump has deemed terrorist organizations, also operate like terrorist organizations. Any attempt to confront them could resemble a full-scale invasion—one that requires tens of thousands on the ground fighting an enemy as determined as any in the Middle East. It is not clear whether Trump or those in leadership positions in the Pentagon fully understand that fact, but the American people are not likely ready to start the next forever war just south of the border.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a thirty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
Image: Shutterstock / Rebekah Zemansky
