If the Americans and Israelis can no longer rely on their air superiority and stealth capabilities, the entire air component of America’s forward power projection evaporates.
Iran claims it has a new anti-ballistic missile system that is comparable to America’s advanced Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) system.
The THAAD is among the U.S. military’s most advanced air defense systems. Given how frequently, the Iranians and their proxies have engaged with US military systems—and how close the Iranians are with Russia—it shouldn’t surprise anyone that even the Iranians are catching up to America’s lavishly funded defense industrial base.
Iran’s recent announcement that it is set to unveil its indigenously produced THAAD-like air defense system in a few weeks has been met with derision within the U.S. defense community, insistent that Tehran could never have developed a system with near-equal capabilities on such a shoestring budget. We shouldn’t be so sure. After all, this is the same defense bureaucracy that was defeated by the Taliban in Afghanistan and ground down by the Houthis in Yemen. In fact, it’s the same community that has repeatedly promised victory in Ukraine against the “inferior” Russian military—but have failed to advance beyond an endless stalemate.
The Russians Are Most Helpful to Iran
On the topic of Russia, even those in the West who are understandably skeptical of Iran’s unverified claims about their soon-to-be-revealed THAAD rival admit that the key element behind an effective THAAD-like system are the sensors. Of course, Iran’s indigenous sensors are likely far behind those that the Americans and their allies employ. But Russia’s sensors are almost as good as those in the West.
Given all that’s happened between the West and Russia, and how invested Tehran is in maintaining its growing status as a Middle East power, it is clear that Moscow has shared its most advanced sensors with Iran’s defense industry. And the Kremlin owes Iran for all the critical military aid and support that the Islamic Republic has given to the Russian Armed Forces in the ongoing Ukraine War. What more natural way to repay the mullahs than through advanced air defense—a system the Iranians badly need in their ongoing war with Israel?
THAAD Isn’t Cutting-Edge Technology Anymore
The THAAD system is one of America’s most important and technologically impressive air defense systems. Indeed, it might—might—be the only existing platform capable of possibly downing incoming hypersonic weapons.
Yet at its core, America’s THAAD is “conceptually obsolete,” as Defense Express described it recently. What’s more, there are an insufficient number of these air defense systems available. Given the current strain on America’s broken defense industrial base, America’s military will never have a requisite number of the THAAD systems available.
The lack of THAAD systems might be forgivable if the United States’ adversaries relied on weapons that were weaker to conventional systems. But nearly all of America’s enemies—and certainly Russia, China, and Iran—have developed sophisticated hypersonic missiles. Indeed, even the Houthis might have them, courtesy of Tehran; it is suspected that the Palestine-2 hypersonic missiles recently fired at Israel’s Ben-Gurion International Airport were indigenized variants of Iran’s hypersonic Fattah-1 hypersonic missile.
So why should it astound us if Iran has the capacity to build its own THAAD system?
All About America’s THAAD System
America’s THAAD system was developed by Lockheed Martin and is part of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS). Its purpose is to intercept ballistic missiles inside or just outside Earth’s atmosphere using hit-to-kill technology, where the interceptor destroys the target via kinetic energy without a warhead. Its effective ranges are between 93-124 miles, and it can clip incoming missiles at altitudes of up to 93 miles high.
THAAD employs a single-stage missile that collides with the target. The system is truck-mounted, giving it a degree of mobility, and carries up to eight interceptors per launcher. The onboard AN/TPY-2 X-band radar can detect and track targets at ranges of up to 540-1,864 miles in forward-based or terminal modes. Lockheed conceived of the system after Iraq’s Scud missile attacks during the 1991 Gulf War. Development began in the early 1990s, and THAAD was first deployed in 2008.
As for its record, the THAAD remains impressive despite its relative age; it made 14 successful intercepts out of 18 tests between 2006 and 2019. What’s more, production models have not failed in testing.
One should not, however, underestimate the innovativeness of the Iranians. This is not just because of their increasing access to advanced systems from the likes of Russia and China. It is also because, until just a week or so ago, there was a very real chance that the Trump administration, in conjunction with Israel, was going to initiate sweeping airstrikes against suspected nuclear weapons uranium enrichment facilities in Iran. Is it any wonder, then, that Iran would be working double-time to ensure their national defenses were reliable enough to rebuff such an airstrike from casualty conscious American leaders?
The Iranians Have Serious Air Defenses Already
A final point of interest regarding Iran’s air defenses took place in October 2024, when Israeli F-35s entered Iranian airspace. They successfully blasted Iranian Russian-made S-300 air defenses and achieved what Jerusalem insisted was “escalation dominance.”
But in the months since, why has Israel refused to strike Iran again? More importantly, why did they not follow through on those initial strikes with the larger strike package that Israel was rumored to have planned for?
We do not know for sure. But one striking possibility is that Israeli warplanes detected a far more comprehensive and powerful Iranian air defense network that likely could identify and possibly even track their F-35s. That’s the only reason why Israel’s advanced F-35I Adirs did not spike the proverbial football in the end zone by bombing Tehran after they penetrated Iranian airspace with their initial airstrikes in October.
And this is a far larger problem, not only for Israel but for their American partners. Because if the Americans and Israelis can no longer rely on their air superiority and stealth capabilities, the entire air component of America’s forward power projection evaporates. Once that occurs, the Americans will find their options in terms of handling strategic threats significantly curtailed in what is yet another erosion of U.S. capabilities at the dawn of a new, post-American world order.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.Image: Wikimedia Commons.
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