After Trump threatened to send two nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) into Russian territory, President Vladimir Putin officially pulled out of the INF treaty.
“If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him.” Sun Tzu’s words have never been more true in terms of what just transpired between the United States and the Russian Federation.
With the Twitter spat over the Ukraine War between the deputy chairman of Russia’s National Security Council (and former stand-in president) Dmitry Medvedev and US President Donald Trump has ended, and talks are underway between representatives from the American and Russian governments, it seems quite likely that Medvedev triggered Trump with his nuclear threats to get the enraged reaction from Trump.
Yes, President Trump threatened Russia with nuclear reprisals (for Medvedev’s nuclear threats). More importantly, though, the Russian government abandoned its previous commitment to the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) agreement. In so doing, Russia can now fully deploy its intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs), including the mighty Oreshnik hypersonic weapon, to Europe for the first time since the end of the Cold War.
America Left the INF Treaty in 2018. Russia Didn’t—Until Now
The Americans pulled out of the INF Treaty in 2018, during Trump’s first term in office. Contrary to what many observers in the West and Russia at the time claimed, the US abrogation of the INF Treaty had little to do with fears of Russia’s nuclear weapons arsenal on the part of the Americans. Washington mostly abandoned the INF Treaty because its primary geopolitical rival, the People’s Republic of China, was not a party to that 1987 agreement. As such, Beijing was able to develop their IRBM arsenal and deploy it with no restrictions, while both the Americans and Russians were limited in their ability to develop and deploy IRBMs under the treaty.
Still, after the Americans bailed out of the agreement in 2018, Moscow opted to continue adhering to it, in the hopes that the Americans would eventually return to the agreement—or, at the very least, renegotiate it to include their concerns.
After Trump threatened to send two nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) into Russian territory, President Vladimir Putin officially pulled out of the INF treaty. As such, the treaty is no more, and the Russians can move IRBMs into Europe for the first time since the end of the Cold War.
That is precisely what Moscow has ordered. And Russia is not just sending any old IRBM into Europe—it is moving the Oreshnik hypersonic weapon into Belarus, a Russian ally and neighbor of Ukraine.
The Real Outcome of the Trump-Medvedev Spat
Trump’s provocative remarks on Truth Social were all the excuse the Russians needed to formally end their commitment to the INF Treaty and move Oreshniks into Europe—against which there is, as of yet, no defense by the West.
Now there will be Oreshnik IRBMs right next door to Ukraine, with the ability to threaten the rest of Europe if necessary. Plus, these moves came on the heels of the Russian government’s announcement that their Oreshnik had now achieved full-rate production. Not only does Russia have the world’s most advanced hypersonic weapon, but it has them in abundance—and will continue building them out even as America and Europe struggle to develop, let alone deploy, any meaningful numbers of hypersonic weapons of their own.
All this is part of Russia’s final push to break the back of Ukraine. Already enjoying significant tactical advantages over the embattled Ukrainians, the Russians are readying to put the kill shot on Kyiv. If the United States and NATO have no good answer to the missile, Ukraine, whose air defense grid has been torn to tatters over more than three years of war, has even less.
At the start of the summer, the Russians moved 160,000 fresh troops and many vehicles onto the frontlines in Ukraine as part of their summer offensive. Now, the Russians are backstopping this force with their Oreshnik—threatening to rain down hypersonic missiles on Kyiv until the Ukrainians capitulate.
With Trump’s team meeting with Putin’s in Moscow, this is likely the last chance to salvage anything short of Ukraine’s total surrender. In the event the talks fail, though, Putin has now prepositioned all the pieces he needs in place to crush his upstart neighbor.
All of this because Medvedev provoked Trump into useless, impotent rage. If Washington does not get better strategists, and Trump does not learn to control his reflexes, the United States’ decline will be assured.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Joey Sussman.
