By fueling a resource race among rival powers, Russia’s apparent discovery erodes the Antarctic Treaty safeguards, inviting environmental and diplomatic chaos.
With the conflicts in Europe and the Greater Middle East seemingly frozen, the geopolitics of the world’s polar regions continue to thaw. What few eyes are fixated on the geopolitics of the polar regions are almost universally concerned with the High North, the Arctic, as Russia (and, to a lesser extent, China) make unprecedented gains in a region that Washington has long considered to be its proverbial attic.
But it is in the southern polar region, long ignored by the West—and supposedly “protected” by the Antarctic Treaty—that is set to be the source of some of the most significant competition.
Antarctic Oil: The Find of the Century?
Last year, according to Newsweek, Russian researchers reportedly uncovered an estimated 511 billion barrels of oil beneath the Antarctic seabed in the Weddell Sea. This massive find—nearly double Saudi Arabia’s proven energy reserves and 10 times the North Sea’s 50-year output—stems from seismic surveys conducted by Russian research vessels during recent expeditions.
There is some skepticism about the Russian claims. But it should be taken seriously, if only because we know there are vast amounts of untapped resources in the southern polar regions. The scale of Russia’s Antarctic oil discovery underscores a burgeoning geopolitical scramble for the continent’s untapped resources. The Weddell Sea site, located within the British Antarctic Territory—but also contested by Argentina and Chile—represents one of the largest, untapped oil reserves globally, with potential for accompanying natural gas deposits. Russian officials presented these findings to Moscow, prompting speculation that seismic data collection, which is typically used for mapping underground structures in oil exploration, exceeds purely scientific research bounds.
If so, this would align with broader trends. With the Arctic being increasingly contested, and Russia on an ever-expanding quest to dominate the world’s energy flows, Moscow is pivoting southward. China, too, has ramped up its presence in Antarctica, opening its fifth research base last year and blocking Western proposals for expanded marine protected areas. According to Newsweek, both China and Russia have invested heavily in their Antarctic infrastructure, with Russia maintaining five stations in the southernmost continent since 1957.
The Geopolitics of Antarctica
A “quiet race” has, therefore, existed between the world’s great powers and the scramble for Antarctica’s natural gas, oil, and rare earth metals—and other strategic mineral—resources. With global energy demands currently surging, powers like the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia are compelled to respond. Such a response could involve deploying more research missions or surveillance assets to Antarctica, leading to a “carve-up” of Antarctica. Thus, the cold continent could become a hotbed of geopolitical rivalry and tensions.
The Antarctic Treaty System has been a cornerstone of international law since 1959. Signed by 12 nations and now encompassing 54 parties, the treaty designates Antarctica for peaceful scientific purposes, prohibiting military activities and territorial claims. The 1991 Protocol on Environmental Protection further bans mineral resource activities until at least 2048, emphasizing conservation over commercialization.
The treaty lacks robust enforcement mechanisms, however, relying instead on voluntary compliance and diplomatic pressure. So long as there was one unchallenged global superpower, such as the United States, norms like the Antarctic Treaty could be reliably enforced. But those days are over. At best, the United States finds itself in a tripolar world system, trending toward multipolarity. Accordingly, as the so-called “rules-based international order” breaks down, one can anticipate the outbreak of resource races between the great powers—irrespective of what international law dictates.
One can see this with Russia’s seismic surveys, which blur the line between science and prospecting—thereby reinforcing the notion that nations in the twenty-first century will ceaselessly endeavor to locate and dominate whatever natural resource wealth they can find. And with the Antarctic Treaty set to expire in 2048, even if a race to the Antarctic is avoided for the next 20 years, the key players will merely jockey for the best strategic position in the southern polar regions, waiting for the inevitable expiration of the treaty so that they can capitalize on the resources there.
The “Race for Antarctica” Will Make America Less Safe
For the United States, this Antarctic oil race carries profound national security implications in the Western Hemisphere, where hemispheric stability is paramount for US foreign policy. As President Donald Trump has highlighted since his inauguration in January, the US does not have control over its own hemisphere.
Thus, the Trump administration has striven to restore its hemispheric defense. The United States, a key signatory to the Antarctic Treaty with operations at McMurdo Station, views Antarctica as integral to its polar strategy, as outlined in the 2024 National Security Memorandum on Antarctic Policy.
Resource exploitation could strain America’s alliances with Latin American claimants, like Argentina and Chile, both vital partners in countering Chinese influence in South America. A 2025 Georgetown Security Studies Review article assessed that militarization paired with the dominance of either Russia and/or China in Antarctica could divert key US resources, weakening America’s overall security.
Energy security is yet another concern: Antarctic oil could flood markets, undercut US shale production, and alter global supply chains that affect Western Hemisphere economies, from Canadian imports to Brazilian exports. And parallels to the aforementioned militarization of the Arctic—where Russia has sizable military forces operating in tandem with resource extraction missions—suggest potential for Antarctic bases to serve dual-use purposes, enabling power projection into the Southern Ocean and threatening US naval routes around South America.
Trump’s “America First” Antarctic Policy calls for bolstering the US military presence in Antarctica to counter adversaries.
Russia’s potential Antarctic oil discovery heralds a perilous new age for the relatively virgin continent. By fueling a resource race among rival powers, it erodes the Antarctic Treaty safeguards, inviting environmental and diplomatic chaos. Even if the Russians are overstating their findings from last year, the fact remains that there are many untapped resources waiting to be exploited in Antarctica.
For US national security in the Western Hemisphere, the stakes are high. Unchecked exploitation could fracture alliances, disrupt energy flows, and invite adversarial footholds, compelling Washington safeguard its interests amid these rising global tensions.
The United States must take strong, proactive measures to secure its position in the Antarctic and work to deny the Chinese and Russians greater access to these massive, untapped resources.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Alexey Seafarer.
