NATO’s recent madcap effort to track down a Russian submarine in the North Sea shows that the threat to America’s aircraft carriers is far greater than the Pentagon lets on.
Last week, NATO forces engaged in a massive submarine hunt off the coast of Norway—apparently one of the largest such hunts since the end of the Cold War. The search involved elements of the United States Navy, the Royal Air Force, and the Royal Norwegian Air Force (RoNAF) hunting down what the Barents Observer estimated was likely one of three Russian Yasen-class nuclear-powered submarines that was operating dangerously close to the US Navy’s USS Gerald R. Ford nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.
The Russian submarine was close enough that it could have probably launched some (or all) of its long-range precision weapons and overwhelmed the carrier’s defenses. Indeed, all three of Russia’s Yasen-class and Yasen-M-class submarines were conspicuously absent from their Nerpicha Russian Naval Base in the Litsa Fjord, just 37 miles away from Norway’s border with Russia.
To be clear: a Russian submarine likely got within torpedo range of the Gerald R. Ford.
This represented a significant escalation on the part of the Russian Navy against NATO at sea. And it sent a very strong message sent by Moscow to Washington (and Brussels) that the Kremlin’s submarine forces are undeterred by the presence of America’s most advanced aircraft carrier operating so near to Russia.
Just a few weeks after the Alaska Summit between President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, in which Trump put on a fantastical display of American airpower, the Russians flexed their own military muscles at America.
Vladimir Putin Is Not Afraid of the US Military
At the Alaska Summit, Trump coordinated a flyover by US military jets—and a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber—to coincide with Putin’s departure from his plane and the two leaders’ handshake. Putin merely smirked at the display. He understood that his submarines could threaten America’s vaunted aircraft carrier—the namesake of the new class of US carriers, the USS Gerald R. Ford.
That new carrier cost the United States taxpayer around $13 billion. Meanwhile, the Russian Yasen-class sub, presumed to be the submarine NATO forces were chasing, cost the Russian taxpayer only $1.5 billion.
One must conclude that the real reason that NATO engaged in the sub hunt was due to how much of a threat it posed to the safe operations of America’s most advanced, most expensive carrier. Most Americans do not understand that these platforms are increasingly anachronistic in the age of advanced A2/AD systems. But the Russians and Chinese fully understand the vulnerabilities of US carriers, and they have both already made calculations to threaten those carriers with destruction if a real war erupted with the United States.
Should the US lose its carriers, it would be a catastrophe for US power projection, and Navy leaders will likely do their utmost to avoid such an outcome. What this means instead is that the carriers will be kept in reserve, a safe distance away from contested waters, out of fear that they could be targeted. But this achieves the same effect as sinking them; if the carriers are not able to bring their air wings within range of an enemy target, they are useless.
In that sense, whether or not Russia—or China, or Iran, or North Korea—sinks the vessels or not is irrelevant. One way or another, by keeping them at arm’s length, they can achieve their strategic objective: rendering the Navy’s primary power projection platform useless for pennies on the dollar. At the same time Washington assures the American people that its rivals are nowhere near as powerful as the US military, the US military is growing increasingly vulnerable to such threats.
The Norwegian Sub Hunt Ended in Failure
What all of this boils down to is that the Russian threat to America’s most advanced aircraft carrier is far more real than what the Pentagon is letting on. NATO scrambled a massive number of advanced forces to drive the Russian submarines back, expressly because the Yasens are specifically designed to kill US carriers.
Of course, the United States and Russia are at peace—however tenuously—and there was little chance that Putin would trigger a world war by actually attacking the carrier. But the fact remains that the Russians got far closer to the Ford than they should have been allowed to get, considering the expense involved in the carrier and the advanced systems that comprise the carrier’s defenses. In fact, there is no evidence suggesting that the NATO forces pursuing the Russian submarine “captured” it at all, despite all the vast resources thrown into hunting it down.
This should be a four-alarm fire in the halls of the Pentagon. America’s most advanced aircraft carrier might not be as well protected as the Department of Defense told American lawmakers it would be. If American taxpayers are expected to pony up $13 billion for carriers like the Ford, they should at the very least expect honesty about those carriers’ capabilities and vulnerabilities. Yet this is not what they are getting.
If a war ever erupted between NATO and Russia, the Yasen-class and more advanced Yasen-M-class would be immediately deployed to hunt down American carriers. Judging from the freakout by Team NATO, it is clear that they believe the carrier is a sitting duck against such a threat.
So now we know why Putin was smirking when he saw Trump’s military display of F-22s and B-2 Spirits in Alaska three weeks ago. By all means, Washington, keep doing things the same!
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Aerial-motion.
