Whatever the specific weapon that was tested was called, it undoubtedly erodes US nuclear superiority by enhancing China’s second-strike capability.
On September 29, China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) conducted an extraordinary high-profile test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from northern China. Beijing is sitting atop a large—and growing—increasingly capable nuclear weapons force that can seriously threaten the United States and its allies.
While the Chinese government did not confirm what exact weapon they tested, certain features displayed in photographs of the weapons test give clues as to the lethal nature of this weapon.
Understanding China’s Advanced Missile Arsenal
China’s missile arsenal includes short-range missiles such as the DF-15/16, medium-range missiles like the DF-26—the so-called “Guam Killer”—and ICBMs such as the DF-31 and DF-41, which can strike essentially anywhere in the United States.
In the PLARF’s most recent ICBM test in September, the mystery missile in question apparently spanned over 7,456 miles, passing near the Philippines and Guam before a dummy payload splashed down near French Polynesia’s Marquesas Islands. For reference, the distance between Beijing and Washington, DC is roughly 7,000 miles.
All this took place shortly after China’s bombastic 80th anniversary parade in Beijing, commemorating its victory over Japan in World War II. At that parade in Beijing, the DF-61 was publicly unveiled for the first time. The DF-61, displayed on a 16-wheeled transporter-erector-launcher (TEL), similar to the DF-41s, is described as the successor to that system.
For several years, the Chinese have embarked upon a massive nuclear weapons modernization and expansion spree. It is believed that China has more than 500 warheads, with plans to have a 1,000-strong nuclear weapons arsenal by 2030. There are also mobile systems in China’s arsenal, like the DF-31AG, enhancing survivability and second-strike capabilities.
What We Know About the DF-61 So Far
It is believed that the dazzling (and mysterious) September test in China was an extension of prior launches, including a DF-41 test into the Pacific last September and a nighttime test in March of this year.
Visible silver-white light trails were captured in the videos of onlookers that were then posted to Weibo and Douyin which displayed “knot” formations in the smoke pattern, as well as screw-like swirls indicative of booster separation and thrust-vectoring.
It is believed that the weapon followed a depressed—flattened, low-altitude—flight trajectory with a straight boost phase and shallow terminal dive. The reason that China would design a weapon with a flattened flightpath would be to reduce the flight time and, therefore, the detection and reaction time of defenders in whatever territory China was targeting with this new weapon.
This sort of flight pattern increases drag and stress on the weapon, but it also complicates interception by systems, like the THAAD and Aegis, which anticipate parabolic arcs. What’s more, this sort of flightpath challenges US space-based missile sensors by compressing response times to mere minutes.
There was evidence of secondary ignition mid-flight (potentially scramjet-powered), aluminum-based propellant (similar to the Chinese DF-21/26/31 models of missiles), and suggesting the integration of a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV). If this did involve an HGV, the idea would be for the missile to boost the HGV to near-space at which point that HGV would be replaced, and it’d glide at Mach five-to-ten with high maneuverability lateral shifts over thousands of kilometers).
Did China and Russia Collaborate on the DF-61?
Unlike traditional reentry vehicles, HGVs are unpredictable, evading intercepts and bypassing American defense zones in Alaska or California. China’s new weapon, if the reports and rumors are accurate, appears similar to Russia’s Avangard system—which should come as no surprise, considering how close China and Russia have already become.
China’s primary goal with this test was to counter US missile defenses, like the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD), Aegis, and the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, all of which could undermine China’s nuclear deterrence. Indeed, boost-glide hypersonic weapons pose a severe challenge to American missile defense systems, which are primarily designed for traditional ballistic threats with high, predictable arcs.
Whatever the specific weapon that was tested was called, it undoubtedly erodes US nuclear superiority by enhancing China’s second-strike capability, forcing investments into new countermeasures such as hypersonic weapons interceptors. It complicates deterrence, as defenses optimized for parabolic threats become obsolete—and could spark an arms race as America works to build up similar missiles of its own.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Allexxandar.
