In a world with total or near-total battlefield transparency, speed is far more important than stealth—and unmanned systems will define any air war.
As the recent US Air Force airstrikes against three major nuclear weapons development sites in the Islamic Republic of Iran has shown, stealth remains a key element of modern warfare. Between the B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers dropping a combined 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) on Natanz and Fordow, and the nearly 12 days of Israeli strikes preceding the American hit—relying heavily upon the fifth-generation F-35I warplane—stealth technology is the basis of much of America’s power projection.
So what happens when stealth is rendered obsolete?
That’s a question that has been keeping the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) up at night for several years—at least since China announced it was developing a science fiction-sounding technology that could render modern American stealth useless. That specific technology is known as a “quantum radar,” and it is part of a larger phenomenon known as “quantum sensing.”
The “Quantum Revolution” Is Coming for the Pentagon
Tied heavily to the overall revolution in quantum computing, quantum sensing has the potential to completely upend America’s expensive stealth technological advantages over its foes. While no one—not even the eggheads at DARPA—know when, exactly, quantum sensing will render American stealth planes obsolete, most understand that the day is coming sooner than later.
Quantum sensing, according to Air & Space Magazine, “collects atomic-level data on time, temperature, rotation, and more to pinpoint an object’s location with unprecedented accuracy.” The magazine goes on to detail how, “Quantum sensing is transitioning from science to an engineering discipline that [can be] deploy[ed] in real-world situations.” In other words, if “you emit a kilowatt of energy, you’re going to be seen and you’re going to be engaged.”
The fact of the matter is that the quantum revolution is coming at us fast—much faster than anyone wants to fully acknowledge. It is rising concomitantly alongside the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. According to Forbes, global investments in quantum computing development have reached $55.7 billion as of 2024, with projections estimating a market value of $106 billion by 2040. At the same time, venture capital funding in quantum computing startups has reached record levels. These trends will likely continue for the foreseeable future.
As more money is invested in quantum computing more generally, very specific developments will occur. These advances will not just come in quantum computing, but inevitably in spinoff technologies—such as quantum sensing. Between now and 2040, the United States could find itself in a contested global environment where their most advanced weapon, in this case stealth warplanes, have lost their stealthiness due to advances in quantum sensing technologies.
If Stealth Is Obsolete, It’s Time to Rethink Everything
Right now, the Trump administration is pushing for a $1 trillion defense budget, touting the recent performance of the B-2 Spirit stealth bombers in Iran—as well as the F-35—and calling for the spending of gobs of tax dollars on the F-47 sixth-generation warplane, as well as the B-21 Raider. But what happens if the Chinese or Russians develop quantum sensing that renders all these systems useless in one stroke?
This is not merely supposition. DARPA has apparently been worried about this for some time. It is only now going public with these fears.
In essence, rather than blowing an astonishing amount of tax dollars on systems that will soon become obsolete, perhaps the Trump administration should do a serious rethink of the weapons and warplanes they are investing in. The world is on the cusp of a radical alteration of conventional military thinking because of new technologies, such as quantum sensing. It would be nice if the Americans actually turned into these disruptive changes, rather than cling onto assumptions from yesteryear.
In a world with total or near-total battlefield transparency, speed is far more important than stealth—and unmanned systems will define any air war. Perhaps the Pentagon should abandon its cockpit craze and focus on building systems that out-fly anything the enemies of America can deploy against our planes and make those systems unmanned, to better protect our airmen. Otherwise, the United States will find itself playing second fiddle to adversaries that learn the right lessons from these new technologies.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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