South Korea’s new President Lee is signaling openness to diplomacy with North Korea, and with Trump’s return, renewed inter-Korean dialogue may be possible, but concrete progress remains uncertain.
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the ousting of conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol, and the inauguration of Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, a thaw in inter-Korean relations might be in sight.
Although too soon for optimism, a new approach, more attuned to the realities of today’s power politics, holds the potential to restart diplomacy.
President Lee Aims for Better Relations with North Korea
Lee’s early moves depart from Yoon’s hardline approach towards North Korea. Within days of taking office, he halted the use of propaganda loudspeakers at the DMZ and requested an end to defector groups’ launch of anti-regime leaflets. These gestures signal a willingness to lower the temperature along the border immediately.
So far, it is working. North Korea has also stopped blasting loud noise across the DMZ. Pyongyang, which had no shortage of animosity for Yoon, has been uncharacteristically quiet since Lee took office. That silence may reflect both self-confidence and strategic patience.
Now possessing a solid nuclear deterrent and benefiting from Russian support and combat experience gleaned in Ukraine, Kim Jong-un has likely grown confident that his military can counterbalance South Korea. Now militarily more self-assured, Pyongyang seems to oversee Lee’s first steps, weighing whether this new administration could offer a path toward renewed dialogue without demanding unacceptable concessions.
America Is Still South Korea’s Number One Ally
Lee’s first foreign call as president was to President Trump, a clear signal that he will continue prioritizing the US-ROK alliance. Trump’s return to office and his unconventional personal rapport with Kim Jong-un during his first term remain a potential channel for breakthroughs.
Meanwhile, Lee’s other early diplomatic moves suggest continuity where it counts: his following calls went to Japan’s Ishiba and China’s Xi Jinping, in that order. Although likely more tense than under Yoon, relations with Japan will hopefully remain on track.
Relations with China will stay frosty, especially in light of Beijing’s recent provocations in the West Sea. Lee seems to be betting that a new quadrilateral group, Seoul-Washington-Tokyo-Pyongyang, might be the most productive forum for addressing the Korean conundrum and safeguarding South Korea’s interests.
While Lee and Trump hail from radically different political traditions, they share overlapping incentives. Both leaders aim to stabilize the peninsula and achieve diplomatic successes quickly.
For Trump, shutting down the North Korean nuclear issue would allow him to refocus America’s finite bandwidth on containing China, his primary goal.
Unlike past progressive administrations in South Korea, Lee is not proposing expansive economic integration or large-scale cooperative projects. His approach so far is to de-escalate the day-to-day risk of war while encouraging future negotiations. He seems stripped of the more idealistic assumptions of past Democratic governments.
Whether this leads to substantive diplomacy or just a short pause in tensions remains to be seen. However, with Trump in office and Kim waiting, Lee’s initial opening gestures have a chance to reset inter-Korean relations and lay the ground for a new round of active diplomacy. Reconciliation is still far away, but quieter days along the DMZ could be ahead.
About the Author: Dylan Motin
Dylan Motin is a Visiting Scholar at the Seoul National University Asia Center and a Non-resident Kelly Fellow at the Pacific Forum. He is also an Expert at Terner Consulting and a Non-resident Fellow at the ROK Forum for Nuclear Strategy. He is the author of Territorial Expansion and Great Power Behavior during the Cold War: A Theory of Armed Emergence (Routledge, 2025), How Louis XIV Survived His Hegemonic Bid: The Lessons of the Sun King’s War Termination (Anthem Press, 2025), and Bandwagoning in International Relations: China, Russia, and Their Neighbors (Vernon Press, 2024).
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Jeonnam Provincial Government.
