Something put the IAF back on its heels after it penetrated Iranian airspace last October. Could it have been Iran’s new domestic missile system?
A fundamental rethink is needed of the effectiveness of the Israeli Air Force’s (IAF) strike on Iranian air defense systems last October.
At the time, the world was stunned to see that, shortly after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the IAF effectively created an air corridor linking their airspace to that of Iran’s and promptly launched a long-range airstrike using what many believe to be their potent F-35I “Adir” fifth-generation warplane. Following that attack, the Israeli government claimed that they had destroyed a handful of Russian-made S-300 air defense systems in Iran—and that they possessed escalation dominance over Iran.
What Happened to Israeli Air Dominance Over Iran?
Seven months after that strike, however, there have not been any subsequent airstrikes conducted by the IAF against those Iranian targets. Indeed, Israel was looking to the Americans to open a new front in the burgeoning air war against the Islamic Republic of Iran—a step that President Donald Trump appeared to rule out in his recent visit to the Persian Gulf.
If the Israeli airstrikes were so effective in October, though, why did the Israelis not take it upon themselves to re-strike Iran? Why only knock out a handful of Russian-made S-300s, then return home never to strike again? Why even wait for the ambivalent and indecisive Americans to fly to Israel’s aid in Iran? This is particularly salient given that Israel’s government has sought to expand its regional war—lashing out at Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian militia groups in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen—at every turn.
The only explanation that makes sense is that something spooked the IAF pilots who participated in the airstrikes on Iran. Sure, they managed to penetrate Iranian airspace. And the Israeli F-35I pilots probably managed to score some hard hits on those air defenses. But the larger strike that was planned was never followed through by the IAF. That’s because their pilots likely detected something that caused great alarm back in the IAF command.
Of course, we will probably never know exactly what Israeli pilots saw during their time over Iran. But from their actions, one is forced to conclude they saw a surprisingly hardened Iran bristling with comprehensive, layered air defenses. These systems were not just Russian-made systems, like the aforementioned S-400, but indigenously produced Iranian systems.
Indeed, given that Israel was striking Iran with their most advanced warplane—the F-35I—and the IAF still pulled back, it is likely because at least some of those Iranian defenses were too threatening to risk losing F-35s.
One such system, the Iranian-made Bavar-373, is specifically billed by Tehran as being equivalent to Russia’s impressive S-400 air defense system and is known as an “F-35 Killer.”
We Don’t Know Much About Iran’s Bavar-373 System
Iran’s Bavar-373 was formally unveiled in 2019, during a ceremony attended by then-President Hassan Rouhani. The system, whose name translates to “Belief-373” (with 373 being the Abjad numeral for “O, Messenger of Allah”), is designed to detect, track, and intercept a wide array of threats, including aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.
Bavar-373 is a mobile, long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system consisting of several key components. These include a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL), allowing for enhanced battlefield mobility and enhanced security from attack. It possesses a Meraj-4 S-band Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, which provides early warning and target acquisition. Two-stage, solid-fueled Sayyed-48 interceptor missiles with enhanced seekers and tracking systems serve as the platform’s claws.
Reliable information about the Bavar-373 is understandably scant. But it is believed that the radar system can detect targets at ranges exceeding 280 miles, track them at 252 miles, and engage them at over 186 miles, with a maximum altitude of around 20 miles in the air. The system is thought to be capable of tracing up to 200 different targets at once, while simultaneously engaging six targets, using up to 12 missiles.
In February of this year, Iran unveiled an upgraded variant of this system, the Bavar-373 II, which introduces independent launcher stations. Each TEL is equipped with its own radar, enhancing autonomy and operational flexibility. This upgrade reportedly extends the engagement range more than 200 miles, while improving upon the original system’s ability to counter high-speed, long-range targets.
How the Bavar-373 Might Kill an F-35
Iran claims that they can leverage Very High Frequency (VHF) radars, like the Russian-built 1L119 NEBO SVU, to detect stealth aircraft such as the F-35I Adir. VHF radars operate at longer wavelengths than other radars and can scatter off smaller features of a stealth aircraft, such as an F-35’s nose or wing junctions, potentially revealing their presence. This capability, if integrated with the Bavar-373’s fire control systems, could theoretically allow it to cue engagements against stealth targets at longer ranges.
This is only a hypothetical, of course. But it is notable that in 2022, the Iranians tested one of their Karrar drones against the Bavar-373. According to the Iranians, the Karrar drone appears as a similar craft with reduced cross-section stealth features as the F-35 does on the Bavar-373’s equipment.
The result? The Iranians claim that the Bavar-373 detected the drone at 280 miles, tracked it at 252 miles, and destroyed it at over 186 miles. Independent analysts comparing the data to an F-35’s profile, however, assessed that the Bavar-373 could engage the fifth-generation warplane at approximately 56 miles while defending an area of 112 miles in diameter.
An Iranian test of its own system is naturally suspect. And there are numerous arguments against Tehran’s claims as to why the F-35I Adir would be able to overwhelm and evade the Bavar-373. But the simple fact is that something put the IAF back on its heels after it penetrated Iranian airspace last October. The IAF used its most powerful warplane, the F-35I Adir, and the most it got was a handful of easily replaceable, older Russian S-300 systems.
The larger planned attack was called off. And there has not been any real attempt by the IAF to recreate those strikes or make good on their threats to the Islamic Republic of Iran. This indicates that there are air defense systems present in Iran that the IAF sees as a real threat.
Given that the Bavar-373 is Iran’s most advanced indigenous air defense system, this is likely the system that sent the IAF quest for air dominance over Iran into a tailspin.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / saeediex.
