The Americans have, for too long, coasted on their Cold War victory in every way imaginable. The rest of the world has caught up.
China has proven that it is a true near-peer competitor to the United States. Most recently, its weapons and warplanes performed far beyond the derisive expectations of Western war planners and pundits in the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan.
Specifically, the J-10 warplane, armed with the PL-15 air-to-air missile, was able to utterly stymie the initial Indian advance into Pakistan during the recent four-day conflict between the two subcontinental powers. Having bested some of the most iconic (and expensive) Western systems, China is now trying to make the J-10 a true rival to the US-built F-16.
China’s Chengdu J-10 Is a Dynamo
Given the impressive performance of this plane in the recent war, Beijing has a real shot at challenging the otherwise dominant position that the American F-16 holds in the global arms export market. If the Chinese can eat into American sales of the F-16, even though the F-16 is an aging craft, it will do massive damage to America’s defense sector.
For instance, in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, it was reported that the sale of America’s legendary fourth-generation F-16 multirole warplane made up a large chunk of that year’s arms sales. According to the United States Department of State, U.S. sales of F-16s to NATO partner Turkey alone accounted for $23 billion. While there are other systems the Americans sell globally, the fact of the matter is that, at least in terms of warplanes, America’s arms industry has never really had to worry about Chinese challengers. It was always understood that even though China’s systems were cheaper, America’s were the gold standard, justifying their high price tag.
That’s over with. China, of course, has long since mastered the art of cheap mass production. But now, as evidenced by the India-Pakistan war, Beijing can also boast the dangerous combination of reliable quantities of systems with high-end quality—or at least sufficient quality to balance well against their far more expensive Western competitors.
Here is the point of those who have for years warned that the Western obsession with building up China’s industrial capacity will come back to bite us. China, predictably, had bigger ambitions than remaining the world’s sweatshop. Cheap consumer goods were merely a rung on the ladder of development.
Today, clearly, Beijing has the capacity—and will—to mass-produce advanced products like J-10 fourth-generation multirole warplanes.
Understanding the Vigorous Dragon’s Threat to U.S. Arms Exports
China’s Chengdu J-10 “Vigorous Dragon” is a single-engine, multirole fighter aircraft developed by China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. The program to develop this plane was initiated in the 1980s. The idea was for China to indigenously develop a fourth-generation warplane to better compete with American and, at the time, Soviet fourth-generation planes. The J-10’s first flight took place in 1988, and it entered operational service in 2004.
China drew inspiration from Israel’s canceled IAI Lavi program, incorporating a delta-wing configuration and canards. It also benefited from Russian technical assistance, notably its engine. Early models of the J-10 used the Russian Saturn AL-31FN turbofan, providing 12,500 kgf thrust (with afterburner). Later variants, such as the J-10C—the model that the Pakistani Air Force deployed against India—transitioned to the Chinese-built WS-10A Taihang engine. Over the last decade, China has gotten much better at building their own indigenous engines as a means of increasing their self-reliance.
While not stealth originally, later models, such as the J-10C, incorporate radar-absorbent materials and reduced radar cross-section features.
America’s Defense Sector Looks Late-Stage Soviet by Comparison
This plane has formed the backbone of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), and it is a continuing work-in-progress. Yet, with each iteration of this plane, the J-10 has become more advanced than the previous.
Generally speaking, whereas the J-10 export variant costs anywhere between $40-$65 million, the F-16V, America’s export variant of the F-16, costs between $60-$85 million (although newer models, such as Slovakia’s 2018 purchase of 14 F-16 Block 70s, cost around $128 million unit).
The Americans have, for too long, coasted on their Cold War victory in every way imaginable. The rest of the world has caught up. In China’s case, they are even surpassing the West in some areas—even in sectors where it was always assumed the Americans would have significant advantages, like the arms industry. The J-10 is ready for its moment on the export market–at the F-16’s expense.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Samuel Lam.
