There are many good things happening for China’s defense export sector in the last few weeks.
China’s defense firms are having a moment in the aftermath of their mostly successful showing in the recent India-Pakistan conflict. Reports coming out of Egypt, a longtime American ally, indicate that Cairo has expressed some interest in acquiring China’s J-10CE fourth-generation+ warplane and their PL-15 air-to-air missiles. Meanwhile, Beijing is poised to deliver a tranche of their fifth-generation J-35 warplanes—as well as their advanced HQ-19 air defense (AD) systems—to Pakistan.
The Egyptian report is unconfirmed. But it is notable that China and Egypt recently conducted significant joint military drills—indicating that the large Middle Eastern nation is looking to diversify its set of alliances away from their American-centric alliance structure.
Egypt Is No Longer the Partner It Once Was
More importantly from the American perspective, both Egypt and Pakistan have historically been major purchasers of advanced American weapons platforms. The Pakistanis have been moving away for some time from their reliance on American systems. But the Egyptians have not.
That may be changing.
The stellar performance of China’s warplanes and PL-15 air-to-air missiles utilized by the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) on the first day of the recent war may explain why there is a sudden surge of interest for Chinese-made weapons and warplanes. As for the Pakistani interest in the Chinese HQ-19 AD system, that is another matter. Essentially, in spite of its victory in April, Pakistan’s military is nowhere near as large or multiskilled as India’s. Pakistan’s leaders are trying to rapidly change this reality. They know that AD systems are key.
Was China’s HQ-9P Air Defense System a Dud?
What is perhaps most interesting about this aspect of the story is the Chinese-made HQ-9P, a variant of its domestic HQ-9 system specifically designed for Pakistan. When the Indians initiated their “Operation Sindoor” in retaliation for the terrorist attacks against Indian civilians in Indian-controlled Kashmir, China’s HQ-9Ps performed poorly in the face of India’s missile and drone barrages against Pakistan.
Many analysts have speculated as to why the HQ-9P long-range, high-altitude AD system failed. One of the most overlooked aspects of why the systems failed, though, came down to the simple fact that there were not enough of them available.
When it comes to effective air defense in the modern era, a country employing any air defense system must ensure that their AD network is layered and comprehensive. Pakistan simply lacked the quantity of AD systems it needed to effectively stop the Indian missile and drone fusillades. As it lacked that number, India simply swamped the small number of systems Pakistan had arrayed against the Indian attacks.
HQ-9Ps are long-range, high-altitude defensive systems. To work effectively, they require shorter-range systems, like the Chinese-made HQ-16 and FM-90s, to buttress the workload of the long-range HQ-9P. Pakistan lacked sufficient numbers of these other systems as well. In some cases, none were available. Accordingly, massive gaps opened in Pakistan’s air defense system, allowing for Indian missiles and drones to penetrate Pakistani airspace and find their targets.
As for the HQ-9Ps themselves: Pakistan possessed an extremely limited number of these systems and could deploy them—sparsely—around strategic areas, such as Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Karachi. But this finite coverage would never have been enough to protect Pakistani targets from Indian attacks. On background, some former US intelligence analysts have explained to me their belief that the Pakistanis in certain cases may have even preemptively switched off the HQ-9Ps—rather than leave them on and make it easier for Indian electronic warfare planes to pinpoint and target these systems.
This leads to a wider point about the Indian Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD),which clearly overmatched the Pakistani defenses. India launched several missions targeting—and destroying—HQ-9P launchers and radars in Lahore and Sialkot. Precision-guided munitions and drones exploited vulnerabilities in the way that Pakistan had deployed their HQ-9s, thereby neutralizing these systems before they could become threats to Indian forces.
Some Chinese sources, clearly embarrassed by the poor performance of the HQ-9 system, have taken to Chinese social media to complain about the lack of adequate training for the Pakistani military charged with using the Chinese-made HQ-9s. According to these sources, poor integration into Pakistan’s Comprehensive Layered Air Defense (CLIAD) architecture and lack of real-time coordination between various Pakistani defenders likely contributed to the poor performance of the HQ-9 in the Indo-Pakistani War.
China’s HQ-19 System Might Be Stronger
Pakistan is working to remedy its deficiencies. The Pakistan Air Force has already proven that in air-to-air combat, both its pilots and its Chinese-made warplanes and missiles are a match for India. With a temporary ceasefire in effect on the subcontinent, Islamabad is moving fast to enhance its porous and weak AD system. That’s where the HQ-19 comes into the fray.
China’s HQ-19s are made to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles during their midcourse and terminal phases, both inside and outside the atmosphere. Beijing further claims that the HQ-19 can intercept hypersonic glide vehicles and has anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities, meaning the HQ-19 can potentially even destroy satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO).
The HQ-19 has been dubbed as “China’s THAAD” because it uses a kinetic kill vehicle (KKV) warhead, relying on direct impact to neutralize targets without an explosive warhead, similar to America’s THAAD system. It is mounted on an eight-by-eight high-mobility wheeled truck with a six-missile launcher configuration. The system employs a cold-launch mechanism at a steep, rear-vertical angle, reducing stress on the launch vehicle and enhancing survivability by allowing rapid relocation. If the missile fails to ignite, the inclined launch ensures it falls safely away from the launcher.
By adding the HQ-19 into the overall Pakistani air defense network, it will create the kind of complex layer around sensitive targets in Pakistan that the government there badly wants to protect. The HQ-19 is seen as a countermeasure against India’s Agni-4 and Agni-5 ballistic missiles.
These claims are being closely monitored around the world, and Beijing claims that Egypt and Saudi Arabia have both expressed interest in purchasing this system.
So there are many good things happening for China’s defense export sector in the last few weeks. At the same time, Pakistan is moving to decisively protect its air defenses so that if—and when—India comes looking for a fight again, Islamabad will have greater defensive capabilities at its disposal.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
