But the main thrust of Beijing’s attack is likely to come far above the Earth, in outer space—where America’s satellites are vulnerable to innovative new Chinese weapons.
United States Air Force Brigadier General Doug Wickert, the commander of the Air Force’s 412th Test Wing, warned an audience of airmen that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is preparing to conduct a Pearl Harbor-style attack on the United States as part of China’s larger effort to conquer Taiwan. Gen. Wickert’s nearly 40-minute talk is available for viewing on YouTube, and it already has well over 400,000 views.
What’s missing from the speech, though, is what form Beijing’s surprise attack might take. The general fixates on known Chinese military training designed to condition Chinese forces to target US Navy warships—particularly the Ford-class aircraft carrier. If the Chinese are going to be successful, though, they will have to conduct a full-spectrum attack upon US assets in space, cyberspace, and the Chinese will have to disrupt the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum.
China Is Undoubtedly Planning a Space Pearl Harbor
Sweeping attacks executed upon critical US satellite architecture will be key for any Chinese invasion of Taiwan to go forward with a modicum of success. Recall that a coterie of military and private sector imaging satellites operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO). These systems will be key for giving the Americans situational awareness if the Chinese military mobilizes to invade Taiwan. Beijing understands this, and has doubtless concluded that blinding those satellites will be a critical first step in a military attack.
China is well-equipped for such a strike. It has prepared a novel anti-satellite (ASAT) laser weapon at the Koral East Test Site in Xinjiang Province. In 2023, the Financial Times reported that the Chinese ASAT laser operates prolifically during what is known as the “solar moon” phase of Earth’s orbit—the period of the day in which many US imaging satellites are most active near China. According to the Financial Times, these lasers fired at undefended American imaging satellites can “seize control of a satellite, rendering it ineffective to support communications, weapons, or intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems.”
Blinding imaging satellites will have immediate, salutary effects for any potential Chinese invasion force. Whatever Western forces try to respond to China’s provocations against Taiwan will do so without any eyes in the sky. A lack of situational awareness is devastating in modern combat. China understands this. And since any possible war with the US would be fought in China’s proverbial backyard—giving Beijing a decisive home field advantage—the lack of situational awareness for US forces could be a killer.
Disabling US Nuclear Weapons and Military Communications in Space
Let’s go higher in the orbital plane. At the highest orbit around Earth, geostationary (GEO) orbit, float some of America’s most sensitive and expensive satellite constellations. Among these systems are nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) satellites. The United States Navy’s Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) is up there as well, as is the US Army’s Wideband Global Satcom (WGS).
The NC3 satellites are key to America’s nuclear triad. Knocking these systems out of orbit won’t end the US nuclear weapons threat to China. But it will severely degrade it. And that just might be all that China needs to go all the way into Taiwan without fearing American reprisals.
That Navy MUOS constellations is the primary way that the Navy coordinates its movements across the globe’s vast oceans. Without that system, the Navy’s ships could not coordinate a counterattack against a possible Chinese threat at sea. Sure, individual ships could—and likely would—respond. But they would be nowhere near as effective as they could be.
What’s more, considering China’s impressive and comprehensive anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) system spread throughout the Indo-Pacific, US Navy warships will be utterly stymied once their satellite architecture is disabled by Chinese ASAT. Losing the WGS constellation would seriously harm the US Army, which relies significantly on that capability for communication and coordination.
China has already demonstrated they have the capability to deploy co-orbital satellites into GEO. These are tiny, maneuverable satellites with grappling arms that tailgate America’s more sensitive systems in that orbital plane, and then physically push them from their orbits—ensuring American forces on the Earth below are deaf, dumb, and blind.
That’s not even mentioning the conventional ASAT weapons that China has spent years building. These are missiles capable of going into low-Earth Orbit (LEO) to physically destroy American satellites there. Of course, the trouble with a conventional ASAT weapon is that it generates tremendous levels of debris that become threats to other satellites in nearby orbits. In other words, unless China wants to risk the entire world losing their satellite capabilities—and endanger spaceflight for a generation or more—it will likely stick to the laser and co-orbital satellite ASAT attacks on American constellations.
Where Do We Go From Here?
It should be obvious that China is preparing for a Pearl Harbor-style surprise attack on the United States. But it will not primarily be on Earth, where the last Pearl Harbor attack took place nearly a century ago. It will be in the strategic high ground of outer space. America must prepare accordingly.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Alones.
