What can be done about this problem? It’s unclear. But in order to solve a problem, one must first acknowledge it.
America’s air dominance is predicated upon being able to strike out at any target, at any time, from anywhere—all while being undetected. That last item—stealth capabilities—is the key component of U.S. airpower that keeps America’s adversaries up at night.
Since the 1980s, the Pentagon has increasingly relied upon its advanced, science fiction-esque stealth warplanes to maintain the edge over its foes. And since that time, Washington has been able to rest easy knowing that its stealth capabilities were sufficient to overwhelm its rivals.
But as Washington has rested on its laurels, America’s rivals have been catching up. China and Russia, in particular, are dedicated to overcoming this capability. And there have been many moments over the last 30 years of America’s seemingly endless brush wars throughout the Global South in which the U.S. Air Force’s stealth capabilities did not work as planned.
America’s First Stealth Plane Was Lost Over Serbia
The best example comes from America’s air war over Kosovo in 1999.
On the night of March 27, an F-117 Nighthawk stealth bomber was tasked with bombing Serbian targets as part of the NATO campaign to stop the Serbs from slaughtering the Kosovars. At the time, the F-117 was the most advanced stealth plane in the world; it was thought to be largely impervious to radar detection. But armed with Soviet-era weapons and much gumption, a particularly innovative Serbian surface-to-air missile (SAM) battery commander devised an ingenious way to identify and take down a supposedly impossible-to-hit American stealth plane.
On the night of March 27, 1999, the American F-117 was made to fly unescorted by its typical complement of EA-6B electronic warfare “Prowlers.” These planes were vital for suppressing enemy air defenses, allowing for the F-117 to fly unmolested through enemy airspace while avoiding detection. Without the Prowlers on hand, the chances that the Serbs would be able to down an American stealth plane increased immeasurably.
The Serbian Soviet-era SAM system rested on two radars for detection and tracking of hostile aircraft. The first radar was the P-18 “Spoon Rest D” early warning radar. Operating on the Very High Frequency (VHF) bands, this system can usually detect aircraft at around 200 nautical miles (230 miles).
But the Serbians realized that by setting the P-18 early warning VHF radar to its very lowest frequency (and its largest bandwidth), they could identify the stealth planes.
Next up came the involvement of the P-15 Flat Face, SNR-125 Low Blow fire control radar, and PRV-11 Side Net “height finder” radar (for accurately tracking incoming threats at their proper altitude). The P-15 is a C-band target acquisition radar that can detect warplanes 150 miles away.
According to the Aviation Geek Club, the P-15 was “completely worthless” when it came to tracking the F-117. But the P-18 early warning VHF radar operating at the largest bandwidth identified the F-117s 15 miles out. This is not very far by radar standards, but it was better than nothing.
On the night in question, Serbian SAM operators fired up the SNR-125 for precise targeting. The American piloting the F-117 had opened his bomb bay doors, lessening the stealth protection by exposing the radar reflective bomb bay to the Soviet-era SNR-125. Two missiles were fired at the F-117, shooting it down.
American analysts credit much of the success of the 1999 shooting down of the F-117 to “luck” on the part of the Serbs. But is not luck merely the combination of preparation and timing?
The Serbian methods were relatively low-tech. Nevertheless, they yielded results—and China and Russia took notes. Three decades later, both Beijing and Moscow are far more advanced than were the Serbian forces of 1999.
America’s Stealth Planes Aren’t Invisible Any Longer
Another stark reminder of how vulnerable the F-35 warplane is to sophisticated air defenses came during Operation Rough Rider in the skies above Yemen. The United States Navy has battled the Iranian-backed Houthi Rebels of Yemen for years. Western media reports have indicated that the Houthis—armed with advanced anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities thanks to their relationship with Iran, Russia, and China—nearly downed an F-35 over Yemen earlier this month. The precise details of the incident have not been revealed. But there seems to be little doubt that the Houthis were using the same general concepts that were first pioneered by the Serbs in 1999.
Building off the lessons learned from squaring off against American stealth technology, the Russians have emphasized VHF radars as a possible exploitation for their air defense operators—specifically against the F-35 Lightning II.
VHF radars operate at between 30 and 300 megahertz, at wavelengths of three to 32 feet. At those frequencies, “the size of the aircraft is close to the wavelength, which causes resonance phenomenon.” In other words, Russian SAMs could theoretically detect an F-35.
Russia has developed other advanced early warning radars, such as the Nebo-M (which simultaneously tracks aircraft across the VHF, Ultra-High Frequency, or UHF, and L bands). It is believed that the Nebo-M can detect the F-35 on a head-on approach. Russia’s Rezonans-NE radar is another system that Moscow claims can track both the F-35 and B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bomber.
And VHF radar is only the first link in a chain of systems the Russians have been developing for an integrated stealth warplane detection plan. Even if not foolproof, the Russians figure that limiting the freedom of action that stealth usually confers on American stealth planes is a necessary step toward deterring U.S. military interventionism.
China is creating a similar system—albeit more advanced—known as the JY-27A. Like the Russians, the Chinese are in the process of developing an integrated, networked system in which VHF radar is the key. Unlike the Russian system, though, the Chinese are employing an Advanced Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) VHF system, allowing for the Chinese system to detect possible stealth aircraft much further out than the Russian VHF radars. The Chinese JY-27A system is also of a modular design, allowing for greater flexibility in tight geographical areas, such as the Taiwan Strait.
Moreover, rumors abound about the Chinese Synthetic Impulse and Aperture Radar (SIAR) that has been forward-deployed to the man-made islands in the Fiery Cross and Subi Reefs. The system uses synthetic pulses on the VHF band to nullify medium-altitude stealth capacity of American warplanes. This is designed to augment the integrated Chinese stealth detection network by allowing for Chinese forces to view incoming American stealth planes at increasingly long ranges.
The data collected by these systems is overlayed by airborne detection planes—and even orbital sensors—to create a layered view of a given battlespace, giving Chinese SAM operators impressive situational awareness in the face of American stealth.
America Is on Notice—and Hasn’t Noticed
Of course, the Americans will argue that the threat is overblown. But way back in 1999, a band of plucky Serbian militia members in the backwoods of Europe were able to down an F-117 stealth bomber using similar tactics.
Since that time, detection technologies have only improved. So have the tactics employed by American rivals, and their commitment to stunting the American stealth advantage. Between China and Russia, the age of American stealth dominance is over.
What can be done about this problem? It’s unclear. But in order to solve a problem, one must first acknowledge it. We are fast approaching the period in which the United States military, with its absurd $1 trillion defense budget proposal, is rendered obsolete by cheaper, more innovative Chinese and Russian rivals.
The warning signs are all around. The F-35 incident over Yemen was only the most recent example. The United States is likely to suffer its first strategic defeat in a major war soon—and the technologies and tactics described above are part of how its foes will inflict it.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / FOTOGRIN.
