Canada Needs a New Submarine. Which Kind Should It Choose?

Canada has the choice between two excellent new platforms as it prepares to replace its aging Victoria-class subs—but one of the two is much closer to what it needs.

Canada is, at least for now, the tip of the geopolitical spear in terms of protecting America’s Arctic interests. Unfortunately, Canada’s navy is completely unprepared for such a mission—a national security lapse that may help to explain President Donald Trump’s stated desire to annex the nation as America’s 51st state. 

Canada’s few remaining, poorly maintained Victoria-class submarines are set to be retired soon. Unless the Canadians pick a builder for their new submarine class, there will be a critical strategic gap in the Royal Canadian Navy—one that the Russians and Chinese will gleefully exploit in the Arctic. 

Canada Has Two Excellent Choices for a New Submarine

Fortunately, Canadian strategic planners appear to recognize the lapse in Canada’s defenses—if not the urgency of the moment. Ottawa wants 12 advanced conventional submarines to enhance surveillance, deterrence, and interoperability with NATO allies. After a rigorous Request for Information (RFI) process from last September to this February, Public Services and Procurement Canada has narrowed the field to two frontrunners: Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) with its Type 212CD submarine, and South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean KSS-III Batch Two submarine.

This selection reflects a strategic focus on proven technology, rapid delivery, and Arctic suitability, positioning the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) as the linchpin of Canada’s forward defense strategy. Shortlisting Thyssen Krupp and Hanwha shows how Canada is emphasizing cost-effectiveness, technological maturity, and regional operational needs. Initial bids included competitors like France’s Naval Group with the Blackfin Barracuda and Spain’s S80 Plus, but TKMS and Hanwha emerged as qualified supplies due to their alignment with the Royal Canadian Navy’s requirements for stealth, endurance, and integration potential.

Comparing the German Type 212CD and South Korean KSS-III

The German-Norwegian Type 212CD, co-developed for harsh northern environments, promises seamless NATO compatibility, while the South Korean KSS-III offers larger payload capacity and quicker production timelines. 

Valued at an estimated $20-24 billion CAD, the program could see decisions on which platform the Canadians are going with by 2027, with deliveries starting in the 2030s. This narrowing of options highlights Canada’s shift, too, from reliance upon US supplies toward diversified partnerships—boosting European and Indo-Pacific ties. It would appear that Trump’s 51st state rhetoric had some unintended effects.

Germany’s Type 212CD submarine builds on the battle-tested Type 212A platform used by the German and Italian navies. Designed for expeditionary operations in extreme conditions, it features air-independent propulsion (AIP) using hydrogen fuel cells, enabling extended submerged endurance without surfacing.

Conversely, Hanwha Ocean’s KSS-III (Dosan Ahn Changho-class) Batch Two submarine brings South Korean innovation to bear, emphasizing offensive firepower and cost efficiency. This diesel-electric submarine with AIP is larger and more versatile than its German competitor. Crucially, Hanwha also pledges faster delivery due to its existing production lines—with potential delivery within five years of the contract’s award.

Why the German Submarine Is the Better Choice for Canada

Although the South Korean KSS-III sub is ingenious, the fact remains that the German Type 212CD submarine is superior. At least it’s better for what Ottawa needs these submarines for. Notably, Canada’s military needs submarines to conduct Arctic patrols, under-ice operations, and enjoy NATO interoperability. These align perfectly with the 212CD’s compact size, cold-weather performance, and lower acoustic profile.

The Victoria-class replacements demand vessels that can operate silently in confined northern passages, where the KSS-III’s larger hull might compromise stealth and maneuverability. While the KSS-III offers greater payload and range for Pacific threats, its VLS focus leans toward offensive strikes rather than the defensive surveillance Canada emphasizes. Plus, TKMS’s established track record, particularly with allies like Norway, strongly indicates reliability and ease of technology transfer. This, in turn, will foster domestic shipbuilding under Canada’s National Shipbuilding Strategy.

Hanwha’s bid promises speed and affordability, but unproven Arctic adaptations and potential supply chain risks in a geopolitically volatile region tilt the scales. Experts advocate for the German option to maintain alliance cohesion and avoid over-reliance on emerging suppliers. 

Of course, time will tell how things shake out. But Canada needs a proverbial fire lit under its government, considering how long politicians in Ottawa have delayed in upgrading their submarine fleet—and how powerful Russia and China have become in the Arctic. If Canada can ultimately decide on a system, it should be Germany’s.

About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

Image: Wikimedia Commons.