The United States is obliged to give Israel a “qualitative military edge” over its neighbors. Will F-35 exports to US allies in the Middle East disrupt that policy?
President Donald Trump is often described as a master negotiator intimately familiar with the “art of the deal.” Trump may soon be facing his hardest deal yet—not in bringing peace to Ukraine and Russia, or in keeping China from invading Taiwan, but in choosing which nations could soon operate the F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation stealth fighter.
The problem of exporting the F-35 is fraught with complications—particularly in the Middle East, where Israel is the only current user of the F-35 platform and has reacted with great suspicion to others expressing interest in the advanced fighter jet. This presents a problem for Trump, as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and other Middle East states have proposed buying the F-35; it is difficult to imagine how everyone can come away happy from whatever arrangement the president chooses to pursue.
Five Years After Its Rejection, Turkey Still Wants the F-35
Key to any future deal with the F-35 in the Middle East is Turkey. This NATO member had previously been part of the Joint Strike Fighter program, until it was expelled in 2020 for adopting the Russian-made S-400 Triumf air defense system. Washington and NATO have argued that the two platforms are incompatible, and Ankara’s adoption of the S-400 puts the security of the F-35 at risk.
“If used, it would be like Russia plugging a USB stick into NATO’s computer network,” an unnamed Western official told Turkiye Today. “That is totally unacceptable for us.”
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan likely understands the seriousness of the matter. To date, Turkey has not activated its S-400s, and various proposals have been floated that would pave the way forward for Ankara to rejoin the program. One such proposal would have Turkey voluntarily surrender the S-400s to a third country—perhaps even the United States!—in exchange for assistance securing the F-35s.
That leaves some room, or at least a starting point, for Turkey to rejoin the F-35 program.
“The successful formula will require both sides to agree to some concessions to their doctrinal positions,” Sinan Ulgen, director of Istanbul-based think-tank EDAM, also told Turkiye Today. “Türkiye [Turkey] will, in essence, have to commit to never using the S-400 in practice—with monitoring to assuage the trust deficit… But the US will have to show flexibility too.”
Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge Could Be Impacted
Debates over Turkey’s acquisition of the F-35 must also include Israel, which has regarded Turkey’s attempts to buy the stealth fighter with hostility. According to a report from The Jerusalem Post, officials with the Israeli Air Force (IAF) are now monitoring interest in the F-35 not only from Turkey, but also from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which have expressed interest in the stealth aircraft.
During Trump’s first administration, the UAE normalized relations with the Jewish state by signing the Abraham Accords in September 2020. There had been speculation that the UAE would become the first Arab nation to obtain the multirole F-35; after expressing concerns about the deal, Israel eventually relented and said it would not oppose it. However, the UAE’s purchase of the F-35 was ultimately canceled for unrelated reasons.
The United States has long maintained a policy of ensuring Israel’s “qualitative military edge” (QME) over its neighbors, such as Jordan and Egypt, both of which have formally recognized Israel. Egypt, Bahrain, and Morocco have also made clear that they would seek to adopt the aircraft if that were an option. Morocco, which has also normalized relations with Israel, would be likely to meet the least resistance from Israel, given the distance between the two.
Saudi Arabia has also expressed its desire to obtain the F-35. However, even as Riyadh has seemed to be close to normalizing relations with Israel, the normalization of ties is unlikely to occur until the situation in Gaza is resolved. Even then, some in the IDF may not support Riyadh’s bid to obtain the stealth aircraft—and could put pressure on the US government to try to block the sale.
How Could Trump Maintain Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge?
Israel could support those aforementioned nations acquiring the F-35, provided the United States somehow limits the capabilities of the aircraft. However, if Israel wishes to keep its qualitative military edge, there is another option—namely the Boeing F-47, the sixth-generation fighter currently under development that is the centerpiece of the US Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.
While there are currently no export plans for the sixth-generation fighter, if Israel were to be offered the F-47 in the future, it would enable it to maintain the qualitative military edge. At the same time, it would open the road for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other “friendly” Arab states to operate the F-35, ensuring that those countries maintain their own military edge over Iran and its regional proxies.
That arrangement may be the only way everyone comes away happy—or as satisfied as they can ever be, as they coexist together in an ever more fractured region.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a thirty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
Region: Middle East
Topic: Air Warfare
Tags: Israel, UAE, Turkey, Donald Trump, F-35 Lightning II, Aircraft
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
