The Russian military continues to advance along multiple axes in Ukraine.
In its latest intelligence estimate on the operational situation in Ukraine, the British Ministry of Defence provided a detailed assessment of the main Russian efforts. The Russian military leadership is concentrating its effort against two major Ukrainian logistics hubs, Pokrovsk and Lyman, in the Donbas.
Pokrovsk
“The logistics hub of Pokrovsk remains the focal point for Russian offensive operations. Pokrovsk is an important defensive lynchpin, constraining Russian advances in the wider Donetsk oblast and towards the Ukrainian cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, both of which are also Russian objectives,” the British Ministry of Defence stated.
The Ukrainian forces have fortified Pokrovsk and are fighting an effective defensive action. The Russian military has been trying to capture the town for months, trying both frontal assaults and envelopment from the flanks. Thus far, however, the Russian forces have failed to capture the important logistics hub that would facilitate further advances into the Donbas region of Ukraine, while also restricting Ukrainian defensive operations.
To facilitate the capture of Pokrovsk, the Russian High Command is transferring some of its best units to the sector.
“Major elements of Russia’s Naval Infantry have been transferred from Russia’s Kursk region and Ukraine’s Sumy region to the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia axis, where they have started to conduct offensive activity in small groups,” the British Ministry of Defence assessed.
Alongside the VDV paratrooper units, Naval Infantry formations are among the most elite line units of the Russian military. However, both units have suffered heavy casualties since the start of the large-scale conflict, denting their capabilities and reputation as formidable foes.
The Kremlin was considering a buffer zone that would include Sumy Oblast, but it seems to be abandoning that idea.
Lyman
Simultaneously with its effort to capture Pokrovsk, the Russian military is trying to recapture Lyman. The town is located approximately 55 miles northeast of Pokrovsk.
“The Ukrainian logistics hub of Lyman, also in Donetsk, remains a Russian objective,” London’s intelligence estimate stated. “Russian forces have taken the majority of the Serebriansk forest to the southeast of Lyman, and are consolidating territory along the Siverskyi Donets river.”
In the initial push, Russian forces had captured Lyman and used it to support further incursions into Ukrainian territory. However, in September 2022, after months of defensive action, the Ukrainian military launched a surprise and highly successful counteroffensive. In a matter of a few days, the Ukrainian forces liberated hundreds of square miles of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine.
In addition to the offensive efforts against Pokrovsk and Lyman, the Russian forces are consolidating control over other sectors of the battlefield.
“Russian forces have consolidated control over sectors of the areas bordering Dnipropetrovsk oblast and Donetsk oblast. Most of these border areas are likely still contested by Ukrainian forces. However, in the vicinity of the village Sosnivka, Russian forces have advanced approximately 10 km (6 miles) further into Dnipropetrovsk on a narrow front,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded in its intelligence assessment of the operational situation in Ukraine.
Encouraged by its progress and a change of tactics, the Russian military continues to advance along multiple axes of advance. The Ukrainian forces are putting up a fierce resistance, but seem to have given the strategic initiative to the Russians.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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