Andrew Cuomo Leads Zohran Mamdani

A new Manhattan Institute poll provides a reality check for the headlines suggesting a strong surge for Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary. Former governor Andrew Cuomo maintains a clear 56 percent–44 percent lead over Mamdani in the final round of a simulated ranked-choice election.

Cuomo’s advantage is especially pronounced among women (a 19-point margin) and voters concerned about crime. “In a city where many public officials and media outlets are eager to declare victory over crime, visible disorder—fare evasion, open-air drug use, severe mental illness on the subway—remains a daily reality, especially for outer-borough women,” writes Jesse Arm.

The poll results also challenge Mamdani’s image as a champion of working-class “black and brown” New Yorkers, revealing that his base appears to be overwhelmingly young, educated, and elite.

As the primary nears, voters seem less interested in revolution than in restoring competence, safety, and seriousness. “The longer-term challenge for New York Democrats is whether they can recognize that shift and adjust accordingly,” writes Arm.

In collaboration with the Sun Valley Policy Forum (SVPF), several luminaries from the Manhattan Institute will speak at this year’s SVPF Summer Institute, on July 1st and 2nd. This two-day conference retreat will be held in the premier mountain town of Sun Valley, Idaho. Reihan Salam (Manhattan Institute President), Jesse Arm (Manhattan Institute Executive Director of External Affairs & Chief of Staff), Heather Mac Donald (Thomas W. Smith Fellow and Contributing Editor of City Journal), and Senior Fellows Jason Riley and Abigail Shrier will be featured in the programming, along with other notable thought leaders. As a benefit to City Journal readers, Reserve ticket bundle registrations will be upgraded to the Bronze pass level, which includes access to a private cocktail party. For more information on the program, go here; to register with MI benefits, go here.

Earlier this month, New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani was asked to explain his support for the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions movement, which seeks to isolate Israel from the global economy. His response? That he wanted to bring the city back into compliance with international law.

That answer doesn’t make sense for numerous reasons. For one thing, no law exists that requires states to sanction and boycott Israel. “If there were,” Seth Barron points out, “almost every nation on Earth would be in violation of it—while Iran, Mauritania, Venezuela, and Yemen would be among the few law-abiding countries.” Read Barron’s take on why some of Mamdani’s recent statements are so puzzling.

States across the U.S. should be applauded for their efforts to get DEI out of schools. Unfortunately, they’ve been using “divisive concepts” laws to do it, which, as Scott Yenor explains, are toothless and rarely lead to legal action.

A better approach, Yenor writes, is the one the Trump administration is following: claiming that certain teaching techniques could make for a hostile learning environment under Title VI of the Civil Rights Act. Yes, teaching about the Holocaust and American slavery should be permitted, he argues, but “smuggling into any of these topics the idea that, for instance, Christians are collectively guilty for the Holocaust, or that whites are inherently racist, creates a hostile learning environment.”

It’s becoming more common for schools to teach young kids about environmental damage, with one Colorado school reportedly instructing students as young as three about the Earth’s demise. Mental health professionals are encouraging this effort, claiming that educating students about the changing planet can help prevent “eco-anxiety.”

A self-serving logic is at work here, Carolyn D. Gorman writes. The mental health industry can introduce the idea that the world is coming to an end and then step in to manage that worry. “Good stewardship of the Earth is well worth promoting,” she writes. “But demoralized students won’t be motivated to save the environment, let alone do their homework.”

City Journal contributors Charles Fain Lehman, Tal Fortgang, Rafael Mangual, and Carolyn Gorman break down results from a new Manhattan Institute poll on New York City’s mayoral race. They also unpack the Israel–Iran conflict and the strange state of modern wedding culture.

“Do you remember when Biden said he was going to forgive student loans, and the Supreme Court said he couldn’t, but Biden said he was going to do it anyway, and then Democrats got all up in arms and said, ‘You’re not a king! No one is above the law!’

Yeah, me neither.

Do you remember when Biden decided to not enforce US immigration laws and then let tens of millions of illegal immigrants into the country, and Democrats said, ‘You’re not a king! You can’t decide to not enforce laws!’

Yeah, me neither.”

Photo credits: Andrew Lichtenstein / Contributor / Corbis News via Getty Images