Though the Israel Defense Forces are an advanced military with a large arsenal of sophisticated weapons, they cannot destroy Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment facilities without American assistance.
In a development that has largely escaped media headlines, President Donald Trump has overseen the shifting of more than 24 midair refueling tankers and an assortment of large military cargo transports out of the United States and over to Europe.
Officially, this is part of a planned NATO exercise. Yet Reuters reports that American defense officials have moved this massive number of support craft into the region to enhance “Trump’s Middle East military options.”
As one retired colonel in the United States Air Force, who partook in the refueling missions that supported America’s successful campaign against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq during Operation Desert Storm told me, “This is a key indicator that President Trump may be moving toward deploying the B-2 Spirit bombers against Iran.” Indeed, the idea that Trump is preparing for such a mission would align well with the events currently taking place in the Middle East.
Israel Lacks the Capacity to Knock Out Iranian Nuclear Sites
After all, though the Israel Defense Forces are an advanced military with a large arsenal of sophisticated weapons, they cannot destroy Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment facilities without American assistance. That’s because Israel lacks the non-nuclear bunker busting bombs needed to penetrate deeply into hardened targets, like Natanz or Fordow. Indeed, Israel has spent the last few days re-striking these targets that they had originally—spectacularly—hit on the first day of their air war that began late last week.
The Israelis have thus far managed to suppress much of the otherwise sophisticated Iranian air defense (AD) systems. But the sabotage of those systems can only last for so long. Israel cannot expect to have permanent, total air dominance over Iran indefinitely so long as the Islamic Republic remains in charge. They have struck Natanz and Fordow repeatedly in an effort to do what they can, while they can. But while this move has had some effect, it has not destroyed the sites. Israel requires American airpower to do this.
Over the last 24 hours, the United States has repositioned the resources required to support a long-range B-2 stealth bombing run into Iran. With Iranian AD systems still not operating at full efficiency, the command-and-control elements of the regime in total disarray, and the natural ability of American stealth planes to stymie detection methods available to Iran, the likelihood is real that the Americans are readying to put the kill shot on Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions.
If Iran’s Nuclear Program Was Destroyed, Would the Regime Fall?
But this would not be just a kill shot for the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The regime has been eviscerated by Israeli military actions thus far. Key leaders are dead. Others are in hiding. The Islamic Republic seems to be on its last legs.
A key source of legitimacy for that regime has always been the appearance that it is the bulwark of resistance to Western imperialism. And the symbol of that imperialism has been in the form of Iran’s flagrant, constant efforts to build nuclear weapons.
Should the Americans intervene directly in the war and destroy Iranian nuclear weapons capabilities, it seems likely that the clerical regime, already in a state of collapse, will be destroyed under the weight of its own internal contradictions.
Then comes the real threat to the United States.
Then What Would Happen? Remember Iraq…
After all, both the Israelis and Americans have proven their ability to wage an effective air campaign over Iran, much to the surprise of many professional defense experts. Yet the collapse of the regime, should it occur, will lead to a chaotic situation in Iran that will prompt calls from every international source for US troops to be deployed in a peacekeeping mission profile.
That is the fight that the loudest proponents of President Trump’s “MAGA” agenda must now consider. Destroying Iran’s nuclear sites is all but a fait accompli at this point. The real fight is in preventing Americans from being deployed to nation-build in Iran. And that is a mission that most Americans are deeply uncomfortable with—for good reason.
Without prominent voices prodding the president to remember the worst decisions excesses of the last 30 years of US foreign policy in the Middle East, Trump’s presidency will be shipwrecked upon the rocky shoals of another Mideast war.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
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