Russia would love nothing more than to weaken China’s grip on the global rare earth mineral market by having the Americans create a new—and massive—demand for their supplies.
The Ukraine War has taken a great deal of flexibility from US foreign policy. Indeed, the fixation on what is fundamentally a peripheral conflict to European security has led to grotesque and grievous actions by US policymakers—actions that run the risk of totally undermining America’s core national interests.
Now that the Trump administration’s trade war is fully underway, and it is very evident that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is running circles around President Donald Trump’s trade policies due to Beijing’s dominance in the rare earth mineral industry, the White House must remove this serious liability that is China’s rare earth mineral dominance.
The Only Two Ways to End America’s Reliance on China’s Rare Earths
And there are only two ways for the United States to rid itself of the liability that is China’s dominance in the rare earth mineral industry.
The first way is to rapidly build up the domestic infrastructure in the United States to support increased indigenous rare earth mining and refining.
The United States sits on some of the world’s largest, mostly untapped rare earth mineral deposits. But, since the 1970s, the United States has neither built a new rare earth mineral mine nor a new rare earth mineral refinery. Decades of chronic investment cannot be undone overnight.
The second way to ameliorate America’s reliance on China’s rare earth mineral stranglehold—and the only way that can bear fruit in the near term—is to end the Ukraine War and create a new partnership with the Russian Federation for rare earth mineral production.
This suggestion will naturally lead to great upheaval in the United States. But the facts are simple. Russia is a commodities superpower. Like the United States, it sits atop some of the most lucrative rare earth mineral deposits in the world. Unlike the United States, Moscow has no compunctions about building its indigenous capacity to make its economy both more self-sustaining and to ensure that the world is dependent upon its vital resources.
It will take the United States a very long time to establish its own indigenous base of rare earth mining and refining, both because of domestic politics and the convoluted regulatory environment that is inimical to new mining projects. On the other hand, if Trump plays his cards right, he can cut new development deals with Russia in no time at all.
But the major impediment to achieving these deals is the Ukraine War—making a successful peace deal more important than ever.
End the Ukraine War to Diversify America’s Rare Earth Mineral Portfolio
When he ran for re-election in 2024, Trump vowed to end the Ukraine War on his first day in office. Most people knew that was not realistic. Many, however, expected Trump to ratchet down tensions in the long-running war, and eventually make peace in the early part of his administration. But so far, that peace has been fleeting—in part because Trump keeps expanding the conflict rather than truly seeking an end to it.
Americans were assured when the administration of President Joe Biden committed the country to total support for Ukraine in their war against Russia that the conflict was in the essential interests of the United States, and that it would not weaken other, more pressing American interests. But America’s current crisis with China shows this is not true. By dint of the fact that the United States must now surrender its hardline stance in the ongoing trade war with China because of Beijing’s control over the bulk of the world’s rare earth mineral industry, it is safe to say that the Ukraine War is no longer in America’s interests.
Sure, Ukraine’s embattled government has agreed to allow the United States to develop their country’s abundant rare earth mineral deposits. Yet, left unsaid, was the fact that most of those deposits are today in Russian hands, and are unlikely to ever be ceded back to the Ukrainians either in war or during peace negotiations.
Therefore, the United States, because of its obvious weakness in the critical rare earth mineral market, must learn to play nice with Moscow. There is simply no alternative.
Good News: Russia Wants to Do Business with America
The Russians have made clear their desire to make a deal on critical minerals with the United States. Several months ago, early into President Trump’s second term, a key confidant of Russian leader Vladimir Putin flew to Washington and met with Trump and his senior advisers.
According to reports, that man, Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, discussed in vivid details proposals from the Russian government for their American counterparts to open new rounds of rare earth mineral development deals between the two great powers.
A radical change is needed for America to break free from the vise-like grip of China over the key area of rare earth mineral mining and refining. Russia will play a key role in that. The sooner that Washington recognizes this reality, the sooner it can diversify its rare earth mineral portfolio and complicate China’s ability to hold the world hostage.
Yes, Russia will remain a strategic competitor in some areas. But in others, it need not be. In fact, Russia would love nothing more than to weaken China’s grip on the global rare earth mineral market by having the Americans create a new—and massive—demand for their supplies.
And in so doing, Moscow could better stand against what it sees as an excessive Chinese attitude toward the Russian Federation.
Russia Knows China Isn’t a Real Friend
Contrary to its public pronouncements, Russia is very much aware that China regards it as a junior partner. And while Moscow welcomes Beijing’s aid in its ongoing war against Ukraine, it also recognizes that that aid comes at a steep cost.
China’s leaders are more than happy to watch both Russia and America fight each other in Ukraine, leaving China a wide open strategic window of opportunity in their own region. So Moscow’s leaders are not so foolish as to think it prudent to be entirely dependent on China.
With the help of the United States, Russia could become a key source of rare earth mineral production, allowing for the United States to remove itself from its unwise dependency on Chinese sources of rare earth minerals—while America works to establish its own rare earth mineral capabilities.
None of this, however, will happen with the Ukraine War still raging. And the longer that the war goes on, the more likely the Trump administration will be prevented from extracting true trade concessions from China, because of the greater hold on the world’s rare earth minerals Beijing will have.
Washington has so badly misread the situation. President Trump wanted to reset the global trade system—but he is finding he cannot achieve this task so long as the Ukraine War continues.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / newsshooterguy.
