Even if the Americans really did destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities, would the Israeli government really accept a successful outcome short of regime change in Tehran?
Hours ago, the US Air Force concluded an airstrike on the Islamic Republic of Iran with its B-2 Spirit stealth bomber aircraft. The bombers struck three targets inside Iran, including its hardened underground nuclear weapons development facility at Fordow—a target that previous Israeli strikes were unable to reach.
No aircraft were lost during the strike, and the Trump administration celebrated it as a success. But there is some concern that the weapon deployed during the strike—the 30,000-pound GBU-57 “Massive Ordnance Penetrator,” or MOP—was insufficient to destroy the Fordow facility.
Iran’s Nuclear Sites Pose a Complicated Problem Set
The most prominent reasons for this concern is Fordow’s highly unfavorable geology. Thinking ahead to the possibility of airstrikes, the Iranians installed the facility underneath a mountain—giving it a ceiling of extremely hard rock, including layers of granite that are naturally occurring in the area. In fact, one expert worried that the unique geology of the area could “mess with the fuzing mechanism” on the GBU-57.
In other words, the rocks under which Fordow’s hardened facilities are located may interfere with the explosive component of the 30,000-pound bomb. What’s more, the GBU-57 has never been tested before—though most experts believe that the system worked as advertised.
Nevertheless, the Americans have placed a great deal of faith in a weapon that has never proven itself in the heat of battle. Of course, there were two other sensitive targets in Iran that the Americans struck on Saturday night, and the GBU-57 is likely to have fared better against both of them. But Fordow was the real prize—and many experts fear that the initial American attack was not as successful as planned.
Lastly, even if the attack was as successful as Trump claims it was, the president may yet find that his Israeli ally is not satisfied. Right now, missiles of increasing complexity and lethality are raining down unholy terror upon major Israeli cities. More and more of them are getting through to their targets in Israel because the collective air defense systems—Iron Dome, David’s Arrow, David’s Sling, and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)—are known to be running low on ammunition.
Even if the Americans did destroy the nuclear weapons facilities and degrade other aspects supporting Iran’s offensive military capabilities, would the Israeli government—which has gone all-in with the war—really accept a successful outcome short of regime change in Tehran? In a Truth Social post after the strikes concluded, Trump wrote, “NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!” But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not agree.
If it emerges that the American strikes were not as effective as planned—and Trump refused to conduct re-strikes—what would stop the Israelis from deciding to launch nuclear-tipped cruise missiles at the Iranian nuclear sites? Conversely, might the Iranians retaliate by launching attacks on Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor that causes a nuclear blast in southern Israel?
Trump Needs to Find a Way Out for America
The Netanyahu government has made clear through its actions that it will settle for nothing less than a regime change mission. Predictably, then, it will continue escalating against Iran, and Iran will continue retaliating against Israel. Following the strikes on Saturday night, Iran is likely to expand its offensive operations by striking US assets in the region, too.
What this means is that the Americans are not going to be able to get a deal from the Iranian regime now. Israel will continue expanding the war to ensure the regime collapses—as it likely will. This outcome, if it comes to fruition, would allow for Israel’s preferred plan of having the Shāh’s son, Reza Pahlavi, return to Iran to either fully restore the monarchy or to preside as an interim figurehead until a post-Islamist government can be created.
Such an outcome would certainly be a net positive for the Middle East, and for global security as a whole. But there is no guarantee that the Shāh’s son will be embraced as his backers in Jerusalem and Washington are claiming. There are many different power centers in Iran—any of which could spark a civil war. Iran could easily implode into a multi-sided civil war, as befell Lebanon in the 1980s. In that morass, the calls will be deafening for US-led international peacekeepers.
Of course, this is all speculative. But events in the Middle East have a way of escalating out of our control—as we see from the present moment. One hopes that Trump and his team have a keen grasp on the situation and understand how to extricate the United States from the mess to come.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Ivan Marc.
