Between the ongoing Ukraine War and the post-October 7 Middle East crisis, American stockpiles of THAAD ammunition have been depleted faster than they can be replaced.
Israel has struck Iran with devastating blows since last Thursday evening. Although delayed, the Iranians have responded in kind. Yet Iran’s retaliation, while visually spectacular, has not crippled Israeli command-and-control and military capabilities the way that Israeli strikes have to Iran since last week.
In the excitement amid the volleys and fusillades exchanged between Israeli warplanes and Iranian missile sites, even the best analysts have a tendency to forget the basic facts of conflict. The most basic fact is that ammunition, no matter how abundant, is finite. And in the case of both missiles fired by Iran and anti-missile defenses deployed by Israel, supplies will soon run out. It is only a question of which runs out first.
Like It or Not, America Is Involved in the Israel-Iran War
This is especially true because we know that the Americans have been repositioning large numbers of midair refuelers and cargo planes into Europe with orders to be on standby for a major Middle East military push by the US. One US military cargo plane in particular was tracked flying to a base in the Northeast United States, where it is believed large quantities of ammunition for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system are kept. After a short delay, that plane then took off again and headed toward Europe.
Since launching their airstrikes on Iran, the Israelis have been under constant missile barrage. Their potent Iron Dome, David’s Sling, David’s Arrow, and THAAD systems have been performing yeoman’s work in trying to protect exposed Israeli cities from Iran’s ire. As the conflict continues and the missiles from Iran continue raining down, these potent air defenses that Israel built over the years are slower and slower in their response. The less of a response from these systems, the more missiles get through, the greater the damage, and the more success Iran’s forces enjoy.
The sad reality for Israel is that there are finite supplies of ammunition for its most critical systems. In the specific case of the THAAD system, the most advanced American air defense system, spare ammunition is produced in the United States. But between the ongoing Ukraine War and the various crises that have afflicted the Middle East since the 10/7 terrorist attacks against Israel by Hamas in 2023, Ukraine and Israel have depleted American stockpiles of THAAD ammunition faster than they can be replaced.
Indeed, even whatever ammunition has been sent over in the most recent wave of American resupply for Israel will be insufficient to feed the THAAD beasts in the face of the Iranian missile swarms. That means the war must end sooner rather than later.
And the United States cannot possibly keep the THAAD and other Israeli defense systems running at the tempo they’re currently operating at, because the US defense industrial base is so badly broken.
America’s THAAD Missile Supply Can’t Keep up with Demand
At some point, Israel will be overwhelmed—as will the US defense industrial base. In fact, the protections afforded to Israel by the United States are, in some cases, not even provided to US forces that are at risk of being targeted in the Mideast by an increasingly belligerent Iran.
All this is to say that there is a reason President Donald Trump cut his trip to the G7 meeting in Alberta, Canada, short to have a personal meeting with his White House National Security Council staff. As even the president noted, it was not to discuss a ceasefire. Instead, Trump and his inner circle appear to have taken the attitude that the best defense is a good offense. In all likelihood, the meeting was to discuss pending airstrikes by the United States Air Force on key targets in Iran. After all, this is the only way America can help to ensure that Israel is not overwhelmed by Iranian missile barrages as the war goes on.
As a colleague told me recently, “Israel can win a weeklong war against Iran. It cannot win a two week-long war. It needs America to do that.” As the war enters its second week, here we are.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
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