The Islamic Republic will watch the US response to the new Houthi attacks carefully, with implications for regional stability.
The campaign carried out by Israel last month against Iran’s nuclear program was, by all indications, a spectacular feat of military prowess and strategic planning. But the role played by the United States cannot be overstated. America’s involvement dramatically augmented the damage done to key Iranian facilities, like Fordow—damage that it would have been difficult and potentially costly for Israel to inflict on its own.
But President Trump’s decision to join “Operation Rising Lion” and bring it to a climactic ending wasn’t simply a major foreign policy success for Washington. It was also a clear sign of assurance to America’s Arab allies, who in recent years had begun to hedge their strategic bets.
After years of balancing their positions between the United States and China, and carefully navigating relations with the Islamic Republic, those countries rediscovered that there is no real alternative to American leadership. At the end of the day, the Middle East is first and foremost about survival, and only then about 5G, AI, or other technologies and commercial benefits.
The “twelve-day war” has left the Iranian regime on the horns of a dilemma. The Islamic Republic is at its weakest point in its 46-year history and needs to determine the best way to ensure its survival. Desperate to regroup and regain some of its regional leverage, Iran has precious few options. The most obvious of them is to turn to its last ally standing, the rogue Houthi regime in Yemen.
Not surprisingly, recent days have seen a resumption of attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Houthis. Last week, the Houthis sank two commercial vessels, the Magic Seas and the Eternity C, killing three of the latter’s crew. And, in the wake of those attacks, analysts believe that the Iranian proxy has become even more emboldened.
That, in turn, suggests that the fragile truce with the Houthis hammered out in May by the Trump administration might be a thing of the past. It is also a clear test for the Iranian regime. The fundamental question Tehran is now asking itself is whether America’s June intervention was the sign of a new, more assertive US approach or simply an anomaly. And there is no better way for them to gauge American resolve than by encouraging their Yemeni allies to resume hostilities along the waterways of the Bab Al-Mandaab.
How the United States and its regional partners respond will make many things clear to Iran’s leadership. Most directly, the Islamic Republic clearly remains committed to attaining a nuclear weapon, but is currently divided over whether to race ahead or temporarily scale back its program. The determining factor here will be whether the United States is prepared to act again in response.
Other actors are watching closely as well. Regional states, long menaced by Iranian proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, are breathing more freely now, after Israel’s successes against both. However, they will doubtless remain concerned that, absent serious, sustained pressure on these groups and others, the Iranian regime will revert to its time-tested approach of proxy warfare.
That proxy strategy was once the source of Tehran’s extensive influence in the region. Now, in the wake of the recent Israel-Iran war, those very proxies represent a way for the US-led alliance in the region to deter further, contain, and roll back the Iranian regime. We should take it. And we should start with the Houthis.
About the Author: Eran Ortal
Brigadier-General Eran Ortal (Israel Defense Forces, retired) is a Visiting Scholar at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC.
Image: DavidG40 / Shutterstock.com.
