China’s JL-3 supports deterrence against the United States by enabling counterstrikes against US cities, military bases, and leadership targets from secure littoral areas.
America’s enemies continue hardening themselves against what they view as the United States military’s ability to threaten them. In fact, these enemies are starting to develop their own capabilities to pack quite a wallop against the Americans and their allies if needed. Enter China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and its remarkable Julang-3 (CSS-N-20) missile.
About the JL-3 Missile
A third-generation submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the JL-3 significantly enhances China’s sea-based nuclear deterrence, allowing the PLAN to project power far beyond its own shores.
Developed amid escalating geopolitical tensions, this missile underscores China’s commitment to modernizing its nuclear triad—land, air, and sea-based nuclear systems. With an intercontinental range and multiple warhead capabilities, the JL-3 positions China as a formidable rival to the United States and its allies as the balance of military power in the Indo-Pacific shifts in China’s favor.
By adding the JL-3 to China’s growing arsenal, Beijing is ensuring that the Americans will at the very least hesitate in deploying its own forces in a Taiwan invasion scenario, for fear of the kind of comprehensive retaliation that Chinese forces could theoretically subject the American mainland to.
The origins of this terrible weapon trace back to China’s efforts to bolster its nuclear submarine capabilities back in early 2010. Building on the JL-2, its predecessor, the JL-3’s development accelerated to address vulnerabilities in range and survivability.
The first test flight occurred on November 24, 2018, in the Bohai Sea, focusing on the cold-launch ejection system. Subsequent tests involved the Type 032 experimental submarine initial launches, with a Type 094 (Jin-class) submarine conducting the fourth test in December 2019.
By 2020, development was decoupled from the next-generation Type 096 submarine to expedite progress, with integration projected to take at least five years. The United States Navy confirmed in November 2022 that Type 094 submarines had been rearmed with the JL-3, marking its entry into service that year. This timeline aligns with China’s broader nuclear expansion, driven by directives from President Xi Jinping to achieve a “world-class” military by 2049.
The JL-3’s evolution reflects China’s shift from minimal deterrence to a more robust posture, incorporating advanced technologies amid US-China rivalry.
Understanding the JL-3’s Capabilities
A solid-fueled SLBM, the JL-3 offers rapid launch readiness and reduced detectability compared to liquid-fueled alternatives. Its operational range exceeds 5,600 miles, with some estimates reaching over 6,200 miles. This allows strikes on the continental United States from protected bastions like the South China Sea (SCS), without even venturing into the waters of the open Pacific, where the US Navy has greater advantages over the PLAN.
Equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), the JL-3 likely carries up to three nuclear warheads, enhancing its ability to penetrate missile defenses. Guidance relies on astro-inertial systems integrated with China’s Beidou satellite navigation network, ensuring precision.
Each Jin-class submarine can carry 12 JL-3 missiles, and with six operational Type 094 SSBNs, China maintains near-continuous at-sea patrols. These specs make the JL-3 a cornerstone of China’s second-strike capability, survivable against any preemptive attacks.
The JL-3 SLBM elevates China’s nuclear deterrence by providing strategic depth to its arsenal (while extending its reach). Traditionally adhering to a “minimum deterrence” policy, China is transitioning toward a medium-sized arsenal, with over 600 operational warheads in 2024 and projections exceeding 1,000 by 2030—less than five years away, at a time when America’s own nuclear weapons arsenal is languishing.
China’s JL-3 supports this by enabling counterstrikes against US cities, military bases, and leadership targets from secure littoral areas nearer to Chinese shores, reducing vulnerability to anti-submarine warfare (ASW).
China Can Hide Behind Its A2/AD Shield
In fact, as with the PLAN’s growing aircraft carrier fleet, the ability for the Chinese forces to strike over the horizon works in their favor because they can hide behind the impressive, protective shield of their robust anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) defense system sprawled across the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and East China Sea.
As for the Indo-Pacific, the JL-3 SLBM dissuades third-party intervention in conflicts, like a Taiwan scenario, thereby aligning with Beijing’s overall goal to “fight and win wars.” It symbolizes great power status for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), bolstering national security amid perceived threats, too.
The expansion of this weapon throughout China’s already growing arsenal, however, raises escalation risks—as China’s launch-on-warning posture could lead to miscalculations in crises (especially considering that the Chinese, unlike the Americans and Russians, are purposely opaque on sharing their nuclear weapons statuses with rivals during a crisis, when open lines of communication are required to avert a crisis).
The JL-3 SLBM epitomizes Beijing’s nuclear ambitions, transforming its submarine force into a credible global threat. By extending range, adding MIRVs, and integrating with advanced submarines, the JL-3 strengthens China’s strategic position, challenging US dominance in the Indo-Pacific. As China’s nuclear stockpiles grow, the JL-3 underscores the threat and the need for the world’s powers to rethink their current disposition toward each other.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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