Trade barriers on Central Asia are as pointless as they are outdated.
The Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which has denied normal trade relations to certain non-market economies since the passage of the Trade Act of 1974, still applies to Central Asia—despite the region’s over 30 years of independence from the Soviet Union. Hopes for repealing the amendment grew after Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled support for closer trade ties during his January confirmation hearings.
Yet, with US attention consumed by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, Central Asia remains a low priority. Lifting Soviet-era restrictions like Jackson-Vanik would allow the United States to engage Central Asia more constructively, ensuring that American trade and development efforts complement regional priorities alongside other actors, including China.
The Jackson-Vanik amendment has largely outlived its strategic purpose. While adversaries of the United States, including Russia and China, have been removed from the list of countries targeted by Jackson-Vanik, Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan continue to face restrictions. By limiting trade partnerships, Jackson-Vanik also constrains the development of strategic corridors, such as the Middle Corridor, that could strengthen US economic influence in the region.
The Middle Corridor serves US interests for several reasons. Chief among them is that it provides an alternative to transport and energy routes that pass through Russia, which has become especially important since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The Middle Corridor, connecting Europe and China via Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey, is becoming a more dependable alternative to the Northern Corridor, given the disruptions along the latter caused by Western sanctions on Russia.
Central Asian countries, like Kazakhstan, are eager to support the corridor and leverage Kazakhstan’s strategic geographic position to promote transport connectivity. However, the Jackson-Vanik Amendment presents an obstacle to the collaboration needed to develop a viable alternative to the Northern Corridor, which, until 2022, carried the majority of overland freight transport from China to Europe.
Central Asia’s potential extends beyond transport routes, as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are poised to be crucial economic and diplomatic partners. As of 2022, Kazakhstan supplies over 25 percent of the uranium imported by the United States and is a leading oil producer, where Western companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil operate. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan, the most populous country in Central Asia, has increasingly seen itself as a regional facilitator and intermediary, seeking to present Central Asia as a platform for multilateral cooperation to expand the region’s economic, transport, and logistics potential.
With Jackson-Vanik restrictions still in place, China has made significant inroads into Central Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative, becoming the single largest investor in the region, surpassing Russia in 2023. Large-scale infrastructure projects have fostered closer ties between China and Central Asia, including the China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline, the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan highway, and the China-Tajikistan expressway.
Considering the logistical opportunities for the United States in Central Asia, repealing these Cold War-era barriers would allow the United States to deepen commercial ties and support economic liberalization, even in a landscape where China is also active. Such a dynamic would align with the multi-vector foreign policies of the Central Asian countries.
Beyond trade, these restrictions also limit US access to strategically important resources that are essential for defense. After repealing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, the United States can reduce its dependency on China for critical minerals. Closer cooperation with Central Asian countries to secure such necessary materials will reduce China’s monopoly and provide an opportunity to establish secure critical mineral supply lines.
Although it is reasonable to question whether China would seek to disrupt US-Central Asian supply lines, it would likely do so economically rather than militarily. However, China aims to maintain a “sphere of stability” in Central Asia. This is of particular importance to Beijing, as it continues to perceive risks posed by the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), also known as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP).
This group has historical ties to Central Asia and has sought to liberate Xinjiang Province and the Uyghur people from Chinese government control. Rather than potentially invoking political backlash in Central Asia and alienating a neutral partner, China may instead pursue a more cooperative posture that preserves its leverage in the refining sphere while avoiding regional instability, which is part of its Belt and Road Initiative.
While the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to dominate US attention, the opportunity to repeal the Jackson-Vanik Amendment should not be neglected. Unlike these conflicts, removing outdated and counterproductive restrictions is a low-hanging fruit for expanding US regional engagement. A long-awaited pivot to Asia would be best served by fostering strong economic and diplomatic ties in Central Asia. Eliminating trade barriers like Jackson-Vanik is a straightforward first step toward that goal.
About the Author: Alex Little
Alex Little is an MS graduate of Georgia Tech and specializes in Russian and Central Asian affairs.
Image: Parilov / Shutterstock.com.
