Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government have repeatedly refused any territorial concessions to Russia as a condition for a negotiated peace settlement.
Negotiations around Ukraine among the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and Europe continue this week, fresh off of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last week. During that meeting, Putin reiterated Moscow’s longstanding demands with regard to the “special military operation” in Ukraine. One of those demands has been the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from four of its eastern oblasts: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
What to Know About Ukraine’s Four Eastern Regions
The four Ukrainian provinces have been internationally recognized as part of Ukraine. However, Russian forces maintain varying levels of control in each province. Moreover, Russian occupational authorities have organized sham referenda in each, giving nominal public approval to their secession from Ukraine and entry into the Russian Federation.
In a negotiated peace settlement, the Kremlin would very likely push for the four provinces as part of the agreement. The Russian forces, after all, have lost over a million troops in the war, and Moscow would have to show something for that number of casualties. Furthermore, Russian negotiators would likely try to argue that Russian forces already have a firm foothold in all four provinces—and that the eventual capture of the remaining Ukrainian territories in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts is inevitable.
But that is not necessarily a truthful argument to make. In its last intelligence assessment on the conflict, the British Ministry of Defence estimated that based on the Russian military’s current rate of advance in 2025, it would take Moscow “approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100 percent of the four Ukrainian oblasts’ territory.”
Approximately 20 percent of Ukraine is currently under Russian occupation. Moscow’s advances are almost exclusively located in eastern and southeastern Ukraine—particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk, where Russian-backed separatist militias have fought against Kyiv since 2014 and where the hardest fighting has taken place since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022.
Of course, an additional four years of conflict would result in more casualties. Indeed, if present casualty rates persist, the tally could rise to as high as 3 million losses for Russia.
“Based on Russia’s average daily casualty rate in 2025 so far, as reported by [the] Ukrainian General Staff, 4.4. more years of war would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties (killed and wounded). This is in addition to the approximately 1,060,000 casualties Russia has already likely sustained since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including around 250,000 killed or missing (presumed dead),” the British Ministry of Defence added.
Ukraine Is Unwilling to Cede Land for Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government have repeatedly refused any territorial concessions to Russia as a condition for a negotiated peace settlement. Kyiv has even asserted that Crimea—the peninsula that Russia invaded and annexed in 2014, precipitating the wider Russo-Ukrainian conflict—is not up for negotiation. This position is contrary to the White House’s recommendation that Ukraine cedes the strategic peninsula to end the war.
“The constitution of Ukraine makes it impossible to give up territory or trade land,” the Ukrainian leader said from the European Commission on Sunday.
The European Union, a steadfast supporter of Ukraine’s independence, aligned with Zelensky.
“With regards to any territorial questions in Ukraine, our position is clear: international borders cannot be changed by force,” European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
“These are decisions to be made by Ukraine and Ukraine alone, and these decisions cannot be taken without Ukraine at the table,” the EU leader added.
The coming days will be crucial for the fate of Ukraine and the three-year conflict that has ravaged two neighbors.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
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