While some analysts have stressed the numbers of the US-EU trade deal, others argue that it must be placed in a wider transatlantic context.
President Trump recently announced a major trade deal with the European Union, requiring the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of energy over three years—about $250 billion annually. Given that this agreement comes alongside similar commitments from other countries, such as South Korea, to buy more US energy, some analysts have questioned whether the United States can produce enough energy to meet this surge in demand.
Others argue that focusing solely on the mathematics of commodity flows is not the best way to frame the issue. Instead, they suggest viewing the deal as part of a broader transatlantic framework with the potential to shape American and European industrial landscapes for decades, while complementing NATO and the transatlantic military partnership. In this context, the agreement is not just about energy; it also involves technology transfer, industrial modernization, securing reliable energy supplies, and even the dissemination of artificial intelligence. Evaluating this relationship requires looking at the whole system, not just the numbers.
The deal also needs to be seen in light of the EU’s decision to completely phase out Russian gas by 2027. American LNG producers are uniquely positioned to fill this gap. For example, ENI recently signed a deal with Venture Global to purchase two million metric tons of LNG per annum for twenty years—a total value of more than $20 billion. Other European companies are securing agreements for small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) and other forms of nuclear energy technology from the United States as well.
The United States energy industry is thriving, especially the LNG sector. The country is set to double its export capacity by 2030, with several additional projects still awaiting development and financing. This growth means the trade deal could have a substantial positive impact on the US economy, both directly through energy sales and indirectly through the broader industrial cooperation it fosters.
About the Authors: Douglas Hengel and Paul J. Saunders
Douglas Hengel is a former American diplomat who worked extensively on economic and energy issues, including as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Energy, Sanctions and Commodities. In that capacity, his responsibilities included formulating and advancing U.S. international energy policy and being a member of the Governing Board of the International Energy Agency in Paris. Hengel has a bachelor’s degree from Colgate University and a master’s degree in public policy from the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University.
Paul J. Saunders is President of the Center for the National Interest and a member of its board of directors. He is also Publisher of The National Interest. His expertise spans US foreign and security policy, energy security and climate change, US-Russia relations and Russian foreign policy, and US relations with Japan and South Korea. Saunders is a senior advisor at the Energy Innovation Reform Project, where he served as president from 2019 to 2024. He has been a member of EIRP’s board of directors since 2013 and served as chairman from 2014 to 2019. At EIRP, Saunders has focused on the collision between great power competition and the energy transition, including such issues as energy security, energy technology competition, and climate policy in a divided world. In this context, he has engaged deeply in energy and climate issues in the Indo-Pacific region, especially US relations with Japan and South Korea. His most recent project at EIRP is an assessment of Russia’s evolving role in the global energy system.
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