China’s ruling Communist Party elites fundamentally believe that the American empire is in decline. They are acting accordingly. Recent developments with “trade hawk” Trump seem to confirm this belief.
While the Trump administration is taking a justified victory lap over its recent spate of successful trade renegotiations with multiple trading partners, the one sore spot that the White House appears intent on glossing over has been the failure of its trade negotiations with the People’s Republic of China.
In fact, Beijing is so galvanized by its successful use of strong-arm tactics against Trump’s trade negotiators that they have carried this approach to their other partners as well. European trade negotiators, who are currently negotiating a round of deals with China, have observed in recent weeks that the Chinese are utterly implacable in ways they have never been before.
China’s Trade Negotiations: A Vise Grip Like No Other
After more than a decade of focusing like a laser on dominating the world’s known reserves of rare earth minerals, China now has the United States and the West right where it wants them. Beijing has even strong-armed Trump himself to modulate his expectations on extracting more favorable trade relations with Beijing.
Instead, there are reports that American officials are quietly advising the White House to “bide its time and hide its capabilities,” much as former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping urged his countrymen to hide China’s political and industrial strength until Beijing had the capacity to effectively challenge the dominance of the United States.
Today, that day has come. China has a vise-like grip on the world’s rare earth minerals, the global antibiotic supply chain, and other vital industries. And it has demonstrated its willingness to put the proverbial squeeze on the Americans in those sensitive spots if Washington pushes China too far with the trade war.
This helps to explain why Trump has scaled back his attacks on China in the trade domain. To pay tribute to the new Chinese emperor, the Trump administration has abruptly reversed its original trade policies on China by authorizing the sale of high-end computer chips to Beijing for artificial intelligence (AI) development. This was a step that the Trump administration had forbidden in the first term—a policy that the Biden administration had maintained.
Now, because of the stranglehold on rare earth minerals by China, the United States is caving to Beijing on the high-end chip issue.
Trump Just Allowed China to Win the Tech War
The chip restrictions were one of the few things slowing down China’s otherwise lightspeed development of AI. While Beijing’s scientists were finding workarounds to the American chip bans, they were being slowed down by those bans. Now, with the removal of these barriers to China gaining access to high-end Western chips, the sky is the limit for China.
Already, chip manufacturer NVIDIA’s CEO Jensen Huang, a Taiwanese-American success story in his own right, has declared that China is going to beat the United States in its quest to gain AI dominance. Whether Huang believes this or was simply saying these things to the press in order to curry favor with the Chinese government is unclear. The fact remains, though, that there are few in Silicon Valley who wish to view China as a real competitor—preferring instead to cooperate with Chinese tech firms in developing AI, even if it means ceding the future to China.
Following a mysterious disappearance from public life by Xi Jinping, there has been speculation that he had been, or would shortly be, replaced as China’s paramount leader. Because of the opaqueness of China’s political system, there is no real way of knowing if this is true. Yet given the way that the Trump administration has completely reversed course on its trade policies with China, regardless of who is in charge, Beijing is not going anywhere on the world stage.
America Must Fundamentally Change Its Trade Strategy
Unless the Americans truly start reindustrializing and retrenching—building for themselves a strong fortress before daring to venture out into the chaotic world beyond the Western Hemisphere once more—the United States will find itself in perennial decline.
China’s ruling Communist Party elites fundamentally believe that the American empire is in decline. They are acting accordingly. Recent developments with “trade hawk” Trump seem to confirm this belief.
That is why now, after having been slammed by Trump in their recent trade negotiations, the Europeans are noting how intractable the Chinese are being in their own trade negotiations with the European Union. It’s because Beijing believes that it is in a position to dominate the world economy. And so long as China holds majority control over industries such as rare earths, this will be the reality going forward.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Joey Sussman.
