The Thailand-Cambodia conflict is another possible chance for China’s arms to be displayed as being at least as good as Western—specifically, American—arms.
Yet another new war has erupted along the geopolitical ring of fire that is Eurasia’s outlying regions. In this case, the conflict between Asian neighbors Thailand and Cambodia, which began in May of this year, has now boiled over into full-blown warfare.
So far, Thailand appears to enjoy overwhelming supremacy over the Cambodians. It is important to remember that the Thai military is overwhelmingly supplied by the United States, while the Cambodian Armed Forces are supplied by the People’s Republic of China. In spite of attempted international mediation, the war shows no sign of stopping: Cambodia has recently attacked Thailand’s Trat Province, inciting a furious reprisal from Bangkok.
In recent days, the United States Navy has moved the aging USS Nimitz aircraft carrier toward Thailand—seemingly part of an effort to bring some semblance of stability to the conflict.
Both Beijing and Washington have taken strong positions of neutrality, with both great powers calling for a ceasefire followed on by a negotiated settlement.
Why Are Thailand and Cambodia At War?
The conflict itself stems from historical territorial disagreements dating back to the early 20th century, when French colonial maps demarcated the border between then-French Indochina (including Cambodia) and Siam (modern Thailand) in ways that both nations interpret differently.
Those ambiguities have fueled sporadic tensions between the two Asian states—notably around ancient Khmer temples such as Preah Vihear, which was awarded to Cambodia by the International Court of Justice in 1962. There are tensions around other temples, such as Ta Muen Thorn and Ta Krabei.
The immediate trigger for the recent conflict was a border skirmish on May 28, where a Cambodian soldier was killed in disputed territory, leading to mutual accusations and border violations. Tensions worsened in the weeks that followed, with reports of Cambodian forces allegedly laying landmines in areas Thailand claims as its own, injuring Thai soldiers and prompting retaliatory artillery shelling, rocket attacks, and Thai F-16 airstrikes on Cambodian military positions.
Both sides have blamed the other for initiating aggression. Thailand has accused Cambodia of sovereignty violations and international law breaches, while Cambodia claims self-defense against Thai incursions. All across social media, videos have propagated showing intense combat; Thai troops armed with US-made weapons are attacking grisly looking Cambodian troops sporting Chinese-made weapons. The scenes evoke American servicemembers’ descriptions of jungle combat from the Vietnam War, which was fought under not altogether dissimilar conditions.
Why Is China Supporting Cambodia?
It is notable that China has been a significant source of military aid to Cambodia—selling arms to the Cambodian military, but also providing training and funding for greater military modernization efforts. In 2019, China pledged more than $100 million in military aid to the country. Cambodia, for its part, directly purchased $40 million worth of weapons from Beijing. Three years thereafter, in 2022, Cambodia purchased three types of Chinese Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), including the 300mm AR2, the Type 90B 122mm, and the SH15 155mm self-propelled howitzer.
Beijing also paid for the modernization and expansion of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, where it maintains a permanent presence. In essence, China has gained access to Cambodia’s coastline via their alliance with Cambodia, which is part of Beijing’s grand strategy for naval expansion throughout the region (to counter the US Navy’s presence.
Why Is the United States Supporting Thailand?
On the other side of the equation, Thailand is a major purchaser of US-made weapons. In fact, Thailand accounts for nearly $3 billion of active Foreign Military Sales (FMS) from the United States. In 2023, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, Thailand bought $330 million in weapons, with $187 million worth of weapons coming from Uncle Sam. In fact, the Royal Thai Air Force relies almost exclusively on the US F-16 fourth-generation warplane.
All these purchases have ensured that Thailand is massively interoperable with the US military and those of its regional partners. Because of the amount of military aid that Thailand has received from the United States, and the long history of security cooperation between the two nations, Thailand is considered to be a “major non-NATO ally” of the United States.
Who Will Win the Thailand-Cambodia War?
In short, with the arrival of China as a serious competitor to Western and Russian arms on the global market, and as new conflicts continue to erupt as the post-1945 global order breaks down, every war will be seen as a contest to see whose weapons are better. The recent India-Pakistan conflict in May made many prospective arms buyers in the Global South think twice about accepting claims of Western superiority.
Now, the Thailand-Cambodia War is another possible chance for China’s arms to be displayed as being at least as good as Western—specifically, American—arms. That is, if Cambodia can achieve some semblance of victory over Thailand. So far, the opposite is taking place: the US-armed Thailand is running circles around Cambodia, enhancing the prestige of American arms on the global market and weakening China’s.
This is not a traditional proxy war between China or the United States. But it is a demonstration of whose arms are better. That’s why the world is so intensely watching this war in southeastern Asia. And whichever side wins this fight will not only empower either the Chinese or American arms trade, but will give real advantages to either the US or Chinese side in their own quests to dominate the region.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / hapelinium.
