China has adopted a policy of strategic ambiguity towards the conflict in Ukraine, allowing Beijing to support Russia while avoiding a direct confrontation with the West.
China has played a balancing game throughout more than three years of the war in Ukraine. Rather than choosing sides in an obvious, defined way—like much of the West—China has calibrated more passively to match its political, economic, and strategic interests. Walking a fine line, Beijing has strengthened ties with Russia while avoiding a direct confrontation with the West, maintaining formal neutrality while still signaling support for Moscow.
What Is China’s Strategic Ambiguity Strategy?
At the heart of China’s approach towards the Ukraine War is strategic ambiguity. On paper, China claims to be a neutral actor in the conflict, often calling for peace talks or a political resolution to the conflict, emphasizing the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations. However, China’s language often appears purposefully vague and non-committal. Throughout the course of the war, China has refrained from criticizing Russia for the invasion, and, at forums like the United Nations, has abstained from voting on resolutions that would condemn Moscow’s behavior. The balance enables China to present itself as a responsible and rational international actor without alienating Russia, a key strategic partner.
However, despite the ambiguity, China’s relationship with Russia has deepened since the conflict began in February 2022. While China has never provided Russia with direct military assistance, as doing so would likely trigger Western sanctions, Beijing has established important economic and diplomatic ties with Russia, thereby preventing Russia’s economic isolation. Notably, bilateral trade between China and Russia has increased, particularly in the energy sector. China has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, gas, and coal, providing Moscow with desperately needed revenue amid suffocating Western sanctions. In return, China has increased exports of electronics, machinery, and consumer goods to Russia, stepping in as a substitute for the many Western companies that withdrew from the Russian market after Putin invaded Ukraine.
Chinese Officials Have Echoed Russian Talking Points
On the diplomatic front, China has echoed Russian talking points, such as the claim that Russia’s invasion was an inevitable outcome given NATO encroachment into Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, China’s state media and officials often emphasize the role the United States has played in escalating tensions in Europe—messaging consistent with China’s broader worldview, which holds that the US-led liberal order is unstable and confrontational. Accordingly, the war in Ukraine is viewed not simply as a regional conflict between Ukraine and Russia, but as a front in the larger struggle between a perceived US-led unipolarity and a multipolarity in which China is a major player.
China has been careful to avoid secondary sanctions from the West. For the most part, Beijing has avoided crossing the red lines that would cause retaliation from either the United States or the European Union, underscoring China’s desire to preserve its access to Western markets.
China’s strategy towards the Ukraine War is highly calculated and pragmatic. Beijing has maintained strategic ambiguity, strengthened its ties with Russia, and avoided provoking a full-scale confrontation with the West. China’s ultimate goal is maximizing geopolitical leverage while minimizing risks to its core national interests. Beijing has successfully preserved its geopolitical flexibility, avoided sanctions, and maintained economic stability. However, the West has hardly been fooled by China’s strategy, as Beijing’s closeness with Russia has weakened Sino-European relations.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a Senior Defense and National Security Writer at The National Interest. Kass is an attorney and former political candidate who joined the US Air Force as a pilot trainee before being medically discharged. He focuses on military strategy, aerospace, and global security affairs. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in Global Journalism and International Relations from NYU.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
