America has never shared its most advanced military innovations with any other nation—understanding that once a technology is out of its hands, it can no longer control where it goes.
With the US military’s involvement in the current conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran coming to a close, the Israeli government under embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking support for what it calls the “Lebanonization” strategy of Iran.
After US President Donald Trump struck three Iranian nuclear weapons development sites with B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers, the American president orchestrated a ceasefire between the warring parties and indicated his support for diplomacy over further warfare. It is clear that neither side was happy with this arrangement, but both agreed to it in the hope of gaining an advantage once the conflict resumes.
Netanyahu’s government believes that the Israeli and American alliance has a once-in-a-lifetime chance to break the odious Islamist regime of Iran. Netayahu seeks to maintain an air corridor linking Israeli airspace to Iranian airspace via Syria and Iraq. Jerusalem, in turn, seeks to have the right to re-strike Iranian targets at will.
This, of course, would require greater levels of military aid and political support from Washington—at a time when there are already concerns about how much more Washington can give to any of its allies, notably those in the Middle East.
Israeli and American Strategic Interests Are Not Aligned
One way or the other, Netanyahu’s government appears poised to execute its costly “Lebanonization” strategy for Iranian airspace. Yet it will be met with decreasing success over time, as Iran adapts to the new reality and restores its degraded nuclear weapons capacity. Iran will decentralize its nuclear weapons even more than they were before the American strike.
Furthermore, taking lessons from Operation Midnight Hammer, the Iranians will likely make its nuclear weapons development sites even more difficult to destroy from the air.
Israel already lacked the capability to destroy the hardened Iranian nuclear weapons facilities deep underground at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This is why the Americans intervened by flying multiple B-2 Spirits over Natanz and Fordow and dropping a combined 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) over those targets. An additional 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched from submarines off the coast of Iran at Isfahan.
Now that Trump has expressed resistance to further US military involvement in Iran, with Israel continuing to press what it perceives to be its military advantage over Iran, there is talk in Washington about handing over one or more of America’s 19 B-2 Spirit bombers to the Israeli Air Force (IAF) upon their retirement.
There Aren’t Enough Bombers to Go Around—or Bombs
Obviously, in order to make the planes effective, the Air Force would also need to hand over at least some of its remaining 30,000-pound GBU-57 bunker buster bombs to the IAF. This, in addition to their stealth capabilities, was the whole reason the B-2s were involved in Operation Midnight Hammer in the first place; they are the only aircraft in the Air Force’s arsenal rated to carry those bombs.
But there is a problem. There were only 20 GBU-57s in the American arsenal before the US airstrikes against Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. Doing the math, there are now only six of the valuable GBU-57s remaining in America’s arsenal. The production line for the bombs has long since been shuttered; the Pentagon is planning to replace the GBU-57 with the new Next-Generation Penetrator (NGP) bomb, but this is still many years in the future.
So America has only six bombs left. Remember, it took 14 for Operation Midnight Hammer. How much damage can Israel really do with six—assuming that Washington is willing to hand them over in the first place, given its own security needs and its inability to create more of the bombs?
This is to say nothing of the fact that the B-2 Spirits are the most technologically advanced strategic bombers on the face of the Earth. There are technologies within these birds that remain lightyears ahead of what any other nation possesses. Of course, Israel is a close ally and the United States share much with them. But there are some technologies that it has never shared—the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, for instance. This has been with the understanding that once a technology is out of Washington’s hands, it no longer has any control where it goes. And Israel has other foreign partners—a growing relationship with China, for instance.
One could imagine a deal with Jerusalem where, in exchange for handing over a small number of the systems, they would have to help America jointly restart the production lines. But Israel is a small nation with a relatively modest military budget; any help it could provide would likely be incidental. Such a deal would be decidedly one-sided.
America Doesn’t Need to Share Its Most Sensitive Equipment
Trump, who fancies himself the greatest dealmaker alive, should remember that there are almost no upsides to letting Israel have even a small number of these systems—especially because the United States has so few of them to begin with.
What’s more, the Israelis are just as likely to use these systems to try to kill top regime leaders rather than destroy any potential military targets, such as Iran’s vast underground missile complexes or whatever remains of their nuclear weapons facilities. In other words, these systems would not even be used for what the Trump administration would want them to be used for.
The Americans must keep the B-2 Spirits and GBU-57s—what few there are—for themselves and drop any mention of handing any over to any foreign power, even Israel.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Anatoliy Lukich.
