Russian aircraft designer Tupolev began working on the PAK DA design in the early 2000s.
The US Air Force’s B-2 “Spirit” bomber fleet certainly proved its worth following America’s high-stakes air campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear assets in June. While the B-2 platform has been an effective deterrent since its introduction to service decades ago, the United States is working to field its next-generation successor. When the upcoming B-21 “Raider” reaches its production phase, it will represent an even more lethal threat to American adversaries. However, other nations (namely Russia and China) are simultaneously developing their own sixth-generation counterparts. Moscow’s PAK DA future stealth strategic bomber project, in theory, will host the cutting-edge capabilities planned to be incorporated into the Raider. Until the Russian bomber reaches operational capacity, however, the true extent of its specs and capabilities will remain a mystery.
Russia’s existing bomber fleet recently took a major hit, following Ukraine’s successful Operation Spiderweb UAV campaign. Last month, Kyiv launched an unprecedented strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting four airbases which housed the nation’s strategic bombers. Small and lethal unmanned aerial vehicles were reportedly smuggled into Russia and launched from cargo trucks. According to the Center for International and Strategic Studies, at least 40 aircraft were disabled or destroyed completely in the operation, including Tu-95MSs, Tu-22M3s, and A-50s. Since Moscow’s bomber fleet had played a significant role in the nation’s ongoing offensive strikes in Kyiv, Operation Spiderweb arguably represents one of the nation’s worst defeats since the war began back in February 2022. With even fewer bombers in its arsenal now, Russia may try and pick up the development timeline for its upcoming stealth bomber series.
Introducing the PAK DA
Russian aircraft designer Tupolev began working on the PAK DA design in the early 2000s. The initial prototype of the stealth bomber would not enter the production phase until 2021, according to former Russian deputy prime minister of industry and trade Denis Manturov. The expected timeline for the PAK DA has continuously been pushed back since. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 only complicated the timeline for the bomber further. Since the PAK DA remains in its design phase, the vast majority of specs and details surrounding the platform remain a mystery. Notably, the bomber’s flying wing configuration and minimized radar cross-section mirror the American-made B-2 Spirit bomber. In terms of rumored ordnance capabilities, some reports have suggested the PAK DA could have a payload of 30 tons, more than the 20-ton limit of the B-2.
While Russian state-media outlets have indicated that PAK DA could reach the production pipeline by 2027, this estimate seems highly unlikely. As explained by Military Watch Magazine, “A significant possibility remains, however, that many of the new technologies developed for the program could be integrated onto future enhanced variants of the Tu-160M, potentially before the new stealth bomber is itself ready for service.” Until Moscow’s existing bomber fleet is somewhat replenished, the nation’s plans for next-generation bomber capabilities will likely be put on hold.
About the Author: Maya Carlin
Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. Carlin has over 1,000 articles published over the last several years on various defense issues.
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