For Jerusalem, the existing ceasefire would leave Iran’s nuclear program in place, and could never be allowed to hold.
“I suggest the toothless snake-head in Tehran understand and beware: Operation Rising Lion was just the trailer for new Israeli policy—after October 7th, immunity is over.” Those were the ominous words spoken by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz.
The Israeli defense chief continued, “I have instructed the IDF to prepare an enforcement plan against Iran that includes maintaining Israel’s air superiority, preventing nuclear advancement and missile production, and responding to Iran’s support for terrorist activities against the State of Israel, despite the ‘Trump ceasefire.’”
Israel Was Never Happy with Trump’s Ceasefire
In other words, the Israeli government is unsatisfied with the ceasefire that US President Donald Trump orchestrated to end the “12-Day War.” In his remarks, Katz described that conflict as merely the “trailer” to a much longer, bloodier campaign.
There have been rumors that the Turkish-backed Islamist government of Syria is in talks to officially relinquish its claim to the Golan Heights, which Israel has occupied since 1967 and annexed in 1981. This is a key element of Israel’s recently established air corridor linking Israel to Iran via Syria and Iraq.
Moreover, there is now ample evidence suggesting that the Trump administration’s bombings of Iran’s nuclear weapons sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were nowhere near as destructive as the White House initially claimed. The Israelis have implied as much, and the Washington Post reports that an intercepted phone call between Iranian officials in the wake of the American airstrikes shows that the Iranians were apparently baffled that the American press was reporting extensive damage or destruction to the facilities, when only minor damage had actually taken place.
So the military operation to destroy Iran’s nuclear program clearly failed, at least in the first round. For Jerusalem, the existing ceasefire would leave that program in place, and could never be allowed to hold. Indeed, according to President Trump, the Netanyahu administration violated the ceasefire almost immediately, prompting retaliation last week from Iran. Fortunately, it stopped after Trump profanely called out both Israel and Iran for not knowing “what the f— they’re doing.”
But Israel knows exactly what it is doing. It views the Islamic Republic as an existential threat. It also believes that the Islamic Republic is on its knees—and by pressing whatever advantage it perceives it has now, it can further set the Iranian program back.
Just How Damaged Was Iran, Really?
A serious question must be asked about Israeli capabilities in the wake of the war. Sure, Israel and America “won” the conflict. Iranian air defenses were damaged in the airstrikes and by deft Israeli sabotage in the run-up to the conflict that began officially on June 13.
But while the Israelis did get in some amazing blows against the Iranians, by the midpoint of the conflict, Iran was starting to adapt. Indeed, the battle damage done to major Israeli economic hubs, like Tel Aviv, was far worse than the Israeli government has publicly let on. Had the war continued, Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome air defenses would have been depleted—and Iran would have rained terror down on Israeli cities in full measure.
Don’t forget, either, that the Iranians fired only a small fraction of the thousands of missiles they have been stockpiling for years in underground “missile cities”—most of which are impervious to Israeli, and even American, bunker buster bombs.
Even Iran’s response to America’s airstrikes was an intentionally weak response. Tehran fired only 14 missiles at the Al Udeid airbase in Qatar—the same number of GBU-57 bombs that America dropped on Iranian nuclear sites during “Operation Midnight Hammer.” It was obvious that Iran was toying with the Americans and Israelis, likely because they knew Trump wanted a ceasefire.
While Iran has thousands of missiles they could fire, Israel and the United States are both running low on the weapons that would be needed to conduct another round of offensives. Meanwhile, Israeli defense officials are claiming that both Russia and China are secretly assisting Iran in reconstituting its own military capabilities that had been degraded during the war.
Israel Won’t Rest Until Regime Change Comes to Iran
Israel is again arguing that time is running against it. Iran is rearming. What’s more, Tehran itself is claiming that the American airstrikes were a minor complication in their bid to become a nuclear weapons state—and the Russians and Chinese are pouring resources into Iran to assist the regime there in becoming a military potentate in the Mideast.
Under the circumstances, the Israelis can hardly be expected to abide by the ceasefire. Especially if they really think they have the advantage over the Iranians by triggering a massive conflict—one that would seriously endanger Israel, and hence force the Americans to join on its behalf. With that element of moral hazard on their side, Israel will again try to ensnare the Americans into doing their job for them: overthrowing the Iranian regime, a step that Trump has been consistently opposed to.
Grave miscalculations occur when such faulty assumptions undergird a nation’s grand strategy. Israel and the United States need to both spend the next decade rebuilding and doing everything in their power to avoid another war that risks upending their respective domestic prosperity.
Should Israel trigger a wider war, and if the Americans did reengage as Trump threatened to do last week at a White House press conference, we will be heading toward complete disaster for both countries.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / noamgalai.
