Whether officially stated or not, absorbing Alberta into the United States is the Trump administration’s de facto policy.
Canada Day, a Canadian federal holiday celebrated on July 1 of every year, takes a special meaning in 2025 amid movement toward a referendum on Albertan independence within the western Canadian province’s legislature. That referendum is highly popular in Alberta, where skepticism of the central government in Ottawa has built for years—and where many view the province’s status less as an equal member of Canada’s confederation and more as a colony.
What’s Going On in Alberta?
When he returned to the White House, Donald Trump made waves for insisting that Canada become the 51st state, after learning about how much money Canada’s economy makes from what Trump believes are unfair trade deals with the United States. Trump’s nonstop goading—among other factors—helped to precipitate the collapse of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. However, the same rhetoric, as well as Trump’s new tariffs, decimated support for the Trump-friendly Conservative Party of Canada and unexpectedly restored the historically-unpopular Liberal Party to power under economist and central banker Mark Carney.
The one part of Canada that largely didn’t mind Trump’s rhetoric, and voted overwhelmingly for the Conservatives, was Alberta—the most productive province of Canada’s ten provinces and three territories. Alberta is home to vast, relatively untapped rare earth mineral deposits, as well as abundant natural gas, oil, and even geothermal energy resources. But the province’s natural bounty has led to a political crisis; seeing Alberta as a cash cow, the Canadian government has pursued a redistributionist tax regime there, increasing costs for Albertans and using its wealth to lower costs in the more populated areas of Canada’s east.
So, to put it mildly, the Albertans have had it with the federal government. The Albertan provincial government recently sued Ottawa over the imposition of a massive carbon tax, which disproportionately harmed its hydrocarbon-based economy. Though Carney later scaled back the nationwide carbon tax in order to curry favor with voters, Albertan oil and gas producers continue to pay separate high taxes for carbon production—with few recourses available to bring them down.
Unfair taxation, and a feeling that the province’s interests are ignored in federal decision-making, create fertile ground for a real independence movement. Remember that Quebec, Canada’s French-speaking province in the east, has had similar gripes against Ottawa for years. What’s more, Quebec has conducted two independence referendums already—most notably in 1995, when the secessionists lost only by a razor-thin margin. Ottawa had promised to recognize the results of those referendums if they were in favor; it can have no objection when Albertans pursue a similar vote.
So it is clear that the crisis in Alberta amounts to more than routine complaining about taxes from a productive part of the country. Nor is it merely a cultural difference between the “Texas of the North” and the famously liberal east coast provinces of Canada. Leaders of the independence movement have already had meetings with the Trump administration to discuss the prospects of Albertan independence from Canada’s confederation—and, assuming it succeeds, potential integration into the United States.
Trump Might Get His 51st State After All
Trump was not simply vamping when he made repeated mentions of making Canada the 51st state. Those comments were paired both with Trump’s desire to reset what he saw as trade relations skewed toward Canada, as well as his attempt to enhance North American hemispheric defense. Currently, both Russia and China are crawling all over the Western Hemisphere—notably in the Arctic, which should be an American backyard. Many American defense analysts have argued that Canada, which consummately refuses to raise its defense budget to NATO standards, has done a poor job of securing the High North. Regrettably, Ottawa’s leaders do not appear interested in changing this unfortunate dynamic.
So what better way to restore American primacy in the Arctic Circle, and reassert American control over the Western Hemisphere, than by absorbing Alberta into the United States? Albertans would in turn benefit from tariff-free access to the world’s largest economy—and a government in Washington that respects their business and their way of life. If Albertan integration into America were successful, Saskatchewan, Alberta’s similarly aggrieved neighboring province, would likely follow. That process would take time, but bold moves on both sides of the border are already being made.
Whether officially stated or not, absorbing Alberta into the United States is the Trump administration’s de facto policy. If successful, this would trigger a chain reaction that will fundamentally alter North America’s geopolitical situation—and enhance American dominance in the Western Hemisphere at a critical juncture in history.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / GagliardiPhotography.
