The Golden Dome’s cost may seem prohibitive at first blush, but evolving threats necessitate forward-looking defenses.
America’s missile defense system needs an upgrade. New hypersonic threats from China, Russia, and possibly North Korea have placed America’s air defense system increasingly behind the curve. The Ukraine War and recent hostilities involving Iran show the need for robust missile defense, and President Donald Trump claims to have the answer: a “Golden Dome” over the United States.
Trump first made his case for the Golden Dome system in a May 20 Oval Office address, in which he outlined in broad strokes what the system would entail. The multi-layered structure would involve ground and space-based interceptors designed to damage or destroy incoming missiles at any stage of their flight path. This capability could potentially even extend to the hostile missiles’ pre-launch phase. The interceptors would be directed by sensors on the ground, sea, in the air, and in space.
Trump said he expects the Golden Dome to be in place by the time he leaves office in January 2029. Analysts say that that timeframe is unlikely. The program does build on an existing missile defense system, so it already has a leg up, but only a limited version is plausible by Trump’s target date.
The “Golden Dome” Will Be as Expensive as It Sounds
Trump is asking for an initial outlay of $25 billion to begin the project. Published cost estimates vary; optimistic estimates suggest $175 billion, while the Congressional Budget Office warns that just the space-based portions would cost $542 billion over 20 years. Trump directed Pentagon planners to develop “medium, high, and extra-high” options based on cost. The number of new satellites, sensors, and interceptors to be purchased will drive those cost differences.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that his country is engaged in talks to partner in the Golden Dome program. Trump says that Canada can join if it provides $61 billion in support for the project. Whether that figure is all-inclusive, or merely an initial down payment, is unclear. Not all Canadians are on board, however; Canadian UN Ambassador Bob Rae described the proposal as a “protection racket.”
Lockheed Martin, which would certainly be involved, characterizes the Golden Dome program as a “Manhattan Project-scale mission”—referencing the gigantic World War II program to build the atomic bomb. The Manhattan Project was a massive expenditure for its age, and Lockheed’s comparison not only stresses the Golden Dome’s importance but also implies the enormous cost.
How Would the Golden Dome Actually Work?
As noted, the Golden Dome system consists primarily of sensors and interceptors. The current system already employs a worldwide sensor and interceptor network, though that network will require significant upgrades. New interceptors would be placed in strategic locations to defend the United States and North America.
Under Trump’s envisioned plans, orbital interceptors would enter the system for the first time. This last capability is crucial for detecting and countering hypersonic missiles and warheads which have the ability to maneuver. Defense against ballistic and cruise missiles would also be part of the system.
The threat posed by China, Russia, and others is very real. Those adversaries’ newest hypersonic missiles are specifically designed to defeat existing American defensive systems. The United States currently lacks hypersonic weapons of its own, which will be necessary to counter any such attack from the nations that do have them. Lockheed’s Golden Dome advocacy notes that the program is “urgent and crucial to America’s security.”
Partnering with Canada on the project seems like a no-brainer. Canada is already part of NORAD alongside the United States, and its participation would extend the system’s reach toward the critical polar region, which lies astride the shortest route for Russian missiles or aircraft to reach North America. The old Distant Early Warning (DEW) radar chain was placed for just that reason. Of course, Canada would help offset some of the cost, and would fall under the same umbrella.
China and Russia have tellingly characterized the Golden Dome as a “dangerous escalation” that would weaponize space. Yet both nations are believed to already have anti-satellite weapons systems in orbit. Expanding that capability seems merely a matter of time, no matter who initiates it.
The Golden Dome’s cost may seem prohibitive at first blush, but evolving threats necessitate forward-looking defenses. The entire process requires careful analysis, but the cost of not acting is leaving the United States open to destroyed cities and a disabled power and communications grid. Under the circumstances, a massive investment in air defense is likely the least bad option.
About the Author: William Lawson
William Lawson is a military historian focusing on World War II and 20th century conflicts and the American Civil War. His specialty is operational level warfare, especially American amphibious doctrine. He writes on history, politics, and firearms for multiple publications and historical journals. He serves on the editorial advisory board for the Saber & Scroll Journal and Military History Chronicles and is a member of the Society for Military History and the American Historical Association. Lawson is based in Virginia.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
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