The election of Lee Jae-myung as South Korea’s president signals a significant shift away from the previous hardline stance towards North Korea taken by his predecessor, Yoon Suk-yeol. Immediately after taking office, Lee indicated his willingness to pursue engagement reminiscent of the earlier Sunshine Policy era.
His swift appointment of Lee Jong-seok, a prominent figure associated with the Sunshine Policy, as director of the National Intelligence Service, and decisions to ban anti-North Korean leaflet balloons and halt DMZ loudspeaker broadcasts demonstrate his commitment to a diplomatic approach. President Lee is expected to propose reestablishing inter-Korean dialogue channels and reviving suspended inter-Korean projects.
North Korea Does Not Need Better Relations with South Korea
Despite diplomatic overtures from Seoul, it is ultimately North Korea’s response that will determine the success of Lee’s approach. Pyongyang symbolically severed official relations by demolishing the inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong in 2020 during the latter period of the Moon Jae-in administration.
Since then, North Korea has consistently maintained a hostile posture toward Seoul. Pyongyang has pivoted toward deeper strategic and military cooperation with Russia, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war, substantially diminishing its incentives for rapprochement with the South or the United States.
Recent diplomatic overtures from the United States have been unequivocally rejected by Kim Jong-un, underscoring Pyongyang’s deep distrust and its strategic preference for Moscow’s security guarantees over uncertain diplomatic engagement with Washington. Unless there are extraordinary developments, such as a severe economic crisis, catastrophic natural disasters, or a significant loss of support from Russia and China that could threaten regime stability, North Korea is unlikely to prioritize engagement with the South anytime soon.
North Korea Does Not Want Any Cooperation from the South
President Lee wants to resume limited humanitarian cooperation, focusing on initiatives such as family reunions and coordinated disaster management during monsoon seasons to mitigate flooding risks.
However, recent responses by Pyongyang show that even these minimal humanitarian initiatives have faced strong resistance. After the failed Hanoi Summit in 2019, North Korea systematically rejected nearly all low-level humanitarian proposals from the Moon administration, including COVID quarantine support and video reunions for separated families. Pyongyang dismissed these offers as “hypocrisy,” citing ongoing leaflet campaigns, joint military drills, and sanctions.
North Korea’s most recent actions: building barriers, destroying roads and bridges in the border areas, and publicly abandoning the rhetoric of unification, do not signal preparations for war. Instead, these steps reflect Pyongyang’s desire to avoid direct military clashes with the South. With North Korea currently committed militarily in support of Russia in Ukraine, and sending even more troops and engineering units, Pyongyang is unlikely to risk simultaneous wars in both Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula.
With this in mind, President Lee could strategically focus on reducing military tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Initial actions, such as banning leaflet balloons and halting loudspeaker broadcasts, are necessary confidence-building steps. Additional measures could include suspending reconnaissance drone flights near the border and strongly advocating for the restoration and full implementation of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA).
Even if North Korea remains unresponsive mainly in the short term, unilateral tension-reduction steps taken by South Korea can help prevent unintended military incidents and lay a more positive environment for potential inter-Korean dialogue.
The Lee Administration Cannot Afford to Be Optimistic About North Korea
Given ongoing North Korean missile tests and nuclear development, the Lee administration must carefully manage domestic expectations, as unilateral overtures risk public backlash. While broad inter-Korean reconciliation remains unlikely absent a significant shift in Pyongyang’s strategic thinking, for now, a carefully calibrated, security-focused approach offers the most realistic and constructive path forward for his administration.
The US–South Korea alliance will remain central, with close coordination needed to deter North Korean provocations and enable future diplomatic initiatives. While hopes for a renewed Sunshine Policy may be premature, a more realistic approach, rooted in patience and pragmatism, will shape the Lee administration’s North Korea policy.
About the Author: Sangsoo Lee
Sangsoo Lee is an Associated Fellow at the European Center for North Korea Studies at the University of Vienna and a Strategic Linkages (SL) founder. Dr. Lee was the Deputy Director and head of the Stockholm Korea Center at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP). His areas of interest are Security and Conflict issues in Northeast Asia, focusing on the North Korean nuclear crisis and inter-Korean relations. Dr. Lee holds a PhD in Northeast Asian Studies from Peking University and has been a Visiting Researcher at the United Nations University (UNU-CRIS) (2007) and at the London School of Economics (LSE) (2011).
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Gyeonggi Provincial Government.
