The fragile ceasefire brokered by the Trump administration continues. However, low-level skirmishes, including cyberattacks, drone incursions, and proxy clashes, are still being reported.
The United States has brokered a fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran after two weeks of ratcheting tensions. The truce, announced late on June 23, was hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough. Yet within hours of the announcement, reports emerged of renewed missile attacks against Israel and continued drone activity over Iran. Most of the ongoing attacks were attributed to Iran and its proxies, casting doubts on whether the ceasefire would hold.
What Are the Ceasefire’s Terms and Conditions?
US officials reported that both Israel and Iran had agreed in principle to pause hostilities. The ceasefire reportedly included a halt to direct air and missile strikes, a temporary freeze on cyber operations and sabotage activities, and a commitment to resume back-channel diplomatic conversations through Qatar and Oman.
Only 6 hours after the ceasefire began, Israel’s military reported that Iran had launched a new wave of ballistic missiles toward targets in northern Israel. The Israeli missile defense systems, such as the Iron Dome and Arrow systems, successfully intercepted most of the missiles fired. However, one missile did break through, reportedly striking a military outpost in the Golan Heights. Iran, however, denied that it breached the ceasefire, claiming instead that it was only responding to a drone incursion over Iranian airspace. Israel called the missile strikes a clear violation of the ceasefire and threatened to resume operations against Tehran’s command infrastructure.
Who Brokered the Ceasefire?
The ceasefire, however fragile, has been credited largely to third-party mediators such as the United States and Qatar, who hosted secret shuttle talks between Israeli and Iranian intermediaries. Qatar, which is already acting as a mediator in both the Gaza and Ukrainian conflicts, has once again proved vital as a regional peacemaker.
However, the peace is extremely tenuous, with both Israel and Iran skeptical of one another. The United States, meanwhile, has heightened its military presence in the region, in case the ceasefire collapses fully—a seemingly practical decision given Iran’s targeting of a US airbase in Qatar.
Shortly before the ceasefire went into effect, Iran fired six ballistic missiles at the US airbase at Al Udeid. All six missiles were intercepted with the US THAAD and Patriot missile defense systems, and no injuries were reported. Iran called the attacks a retaliatory act in response to US strikes on three nuclear sites inside Iran during “Operation Midnight Hammer.”
According to the Pentagon, Operation Midnight Hammer was aimed at disabling “critical infrastructure related to Iran’s nuclear breakout capacity.” Iran, meanwhile, responded with a pledge to use “proportional force” if further violations occurred. However, Iran cannot likely respond with proportional force due to its lack of capability.
The fragile ceasefire persists, at least on paper. However, low-level skirmishes, including cyberattacks, drone incursions, and proxy clashes, are still being reported. Neither side has formally withdrawn from the ceasefire agreement, meaning the truce is still in place. However, both Israel and Iran distrust each other, making the renewal of hostilities between them extremely likely. Time will tell whether the ceasefire is a turning point on the road to de-escalation, or merely a tactical pause amidst ongoing hostilities.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a senior defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
Image: Shutterstock / Rokas Tenys.
