Belarusian troops have never directly joined the Ukraine conflict, as many analysts feared might happen. Instead, Minsk has continued to play a careful balancing act.
June 25th marks the third anniversary of the first—and only—launch of a Russian airstrike on Ukraine from Belarusian territory. In that unprecedented move, six Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers—flying from Shaykovka airbase in Russia’s Kaluga region—entered Belarusian airspace near Mozyr before firing 12 Kh-22 cruise missiles at targets across Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Lviv.
At the time, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) denounced the strike as a “large-scale provocation”—intended as a deliberate move designed to draw Belarus into the conflict on Russia’s behalf. The incident raised questions about the possibility of a second front opening between Ukraine and Belarus. Fortunately, though, cooler heads prevailed.
Ukraine Was Unprepared for an Airstrike from Belarus
Ukraine intercepted some of the 12 cruise missiles launched, but not all. The missiles that evaded Ukrainian air defense systems struck infrastructure and civilian zones, resulting in dozens of casualties and damage to critical energy facilities. For months afterwards, Ukraine kept the exact numbers of casualties classified. Subsequent reporting however revealed that at least 15 civilians were killed, and more than 50 injured. Ukrainian authorities later released satellite imagery and forensic evidence linking the trajectory of the missiles directly to Belarusian airspace.
The attack allowed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to lobby Western allies for advanced air defense systems with urgency and credibility. Within weeks, the United States and its European NATO allies began expediting deliveries of NASAMS, IRIS-T systems, and additional Patriot batteries—all of which have since become vital to Ukraine’s layered air defense network.
Belarus Has No Good Options in Ukraine
While the June 2022 strike did not lead to a full Belarusian entry into the war, it redefined Minsk’s position. Belarus was already complicit in the war as a staging ground for Russian troops and missile systems before the strike—in the opening hours of the conflict, Russian troops notably invaded Ukraine across Belarus’ southern border, advancing close to Kyiv before being routed—but the strike represented the crossing of a symbolic threshold in which Belarus became a more direct participant in the war.
In the years since the attack, Russia has increasingly leaned on Belarus for security purposes. The Kremlin has stationed tactical nuclear weapons inside Belarus, in accordance with a bilateral military agreement. Russia also deployed its Iskander-M missile system to Belarusian territory, though these missiles have not been fired at Ukraine from Belarus yet. Similarly, Belarus hosts Russian early warning radar and logistics hubs near Luminets and Baranovichi—solidifying its role as a strategic springboard for Russian operations.
Still, Belarusian troops have never directly entered Ukrainian territory, as many analysts feared might happen after the June 25th airstrikes. Instead, Minsk has continued to play a careful balancing act—offering Moscow logistical and strategic depth while avoiding actual military commitment.
Three years after the June 2022 airstrike from Belarus, it remains a unique event: the only record instance of a cruise missile attack being launched from Belarusian airspace. Further launches seem to have been effectively deterred; NATO and Ukraine both made stark warnings to the Belarusians in its aftermath, and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko likely pressured Vladimir Putin not to repeat the incident. Yet Belarus’s strategic ambiguity leaves open the possibility that it might happen again. Minsk’s airspace, bases, and infrastructure continue to support Russian intelligence, supply, and missile capabilities to this day. Could Belarus become more involved in the future, if the conflict persists in perpetuity? Perhaps. But the ongoing balancing act is likely how Belarus continues to play their involvement.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
Image: Shutterstock / ToskanaINC.
