Iran’s counterattack was telegraphed well in advance—and clearly part of a phased de-escalation strategy, allowing Tehran to save face and claim that it struck back without risking American retaliation.
Only three days ago, the United States intervened in the Israel-Iran War with its largest military operation since the end of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Multiple B-2 Spirit long-range bombers were deployed, along with US Navy warplanes, and around 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from submarines off the coast of Iran, at three of Iran’s top nuclear weapons development facilities.
The world braced for what Tehran vowed would be the mother of all retaliations. But when it finally came, it was a muted affair. Only 14 missiles were fired at America’s fortified Al Udeid base in Qatar on Monday, June 23. All but one of those missiles were intercepted by American air defenses. It was later revealed that Iran had literally told the Americans where, when, and how they were going to retaliate. That’s why the Americans were ready.
To be clear: the Iranians have thousands—possibly tens of thousands, according to many unconfirmed reports—of advanced missiles in their arsenal. They could have easily launched such a massive swarm of missiles and drones that the American air defenses would have simply crumbled. Iran didn’t want to do that. They didn’t want to deal with escalation. What’s more, they didn’t want to risk irking China, which is dependent on Iranian oil and natural gas flows—and whose precarious economy may have been disrupted by the escalatory fighting between the US, Israel, and Iran.
Plus, Iran’s other primary ally, Russia, while condemning the Israeli and American attacks on Iran, made clear to Iran that they would be unable to do much more to assist the Iranians in any potential big fight with the Americans.
Given the damage the Iranians had already received in recent weeks, it made little sense to expand the conflict—for now. That’s why, as soon as the choreographed June 23 attack on Al Udeid was over, the Iranians accepted a ceasefire with Israel that President Donald Trump apparently orchestrated.
As for the details of the Iranian missile fusillade at Al Udeid, it appears that the Iranians used solid-fuel tactical guided ballistic missiles. These included Haj Qassem missiles, as well as possibly the Fattah-1 missile and Sejjil missiles. The latter system is a two-stage, solid-fueled intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).
The Fattah-1 and -2 Hypersonic Missiles
These reports are mostly unconfirmed, but they are believed to be the most likely system, with the most interesting possible system involved in the strike on US forces being the Fattah-1 hypersonic missile.
Capable of traveling at speeds exceeding Mach 5, this maneuverable, two-stage solid-fueled missile uses a solid-fuel propulsion system, which allows for quicker launch preparation compared to liquid-fuel missiles and enhances its mobility and survivability. The second stage features a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV).
There are two variants of this weapon. It has been used by Iran to hit targets in Israel in the ongoing war. If the unconfirmed reports are accurate, then the one missile that made it through the American and Qatari air defenses might have been the Fattah-1, considering modern air defenses struggle to reliably shoot down hypersonic weapons.
The Haj Qassem Medium-Range Ballistic Missile
Another system the Iranians used was the Haj Qassem, a solid-fueled, medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) developed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force. Named after Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the IRGC Quds Force who was killed by an American drone strike in early 2020, the missile is designed to enhance Iran’s precision strike capabilities and evade advanced air defense systems.
It is believed that this system has an MaRV capability that enables it to adjust its trajectory during the reentry phase to evade American defense systems, like the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot missile batteries—or Israel’s Arrow and Iron Dome defenses. The missile’s airframe uses carbon fiber composite materials to reduce its radar cross-section, enhancing its ability to evade detection.
This missile can reach speeds of up to Mach 12 during atmospheric reentry and Mach 5 upon impact. They are launched from mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs), including platforms disguised as civilian trucks, increasing its mobility and concealment. Haj Qassem missiles are stored in Iran’s sweeping underground “missile cities,” making them hard for Western air forces to effectively destroy.
The Sejjil Missile Family
The Sejjil family of two-stage, solid-fueled MRBMs—developed by Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics and operated primarily by the IRGC Aerospace Force—is named after a type of baked clay used in ancient Persia. The Sejjil is one of Iran’s most advanced missile systems, designed for rapid deployment, high mobility, and the ability to strike regional targets with improved accuracy compared to earlier Iranian missiles.
Relying on inertial navigation systems (INS) and GPS-based guidance, with some reports suggesting the inclusion of electro-optical or infrared terminal guidance, this system is a real killer—at least on paper. In practice, the missile’s performance is somewhat more mediocre; during the strike against Al Udeid, all but one of these missiles were successfully intercepted by the Americans and Qataris.
Iran Hands America a Small Victory
While the Americans are understandably taking a victory lap for having both successfully struck Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities and defending Al Udeid, it’s important to remember in both cases things are not what they seemed.
The American run on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while they certainly did degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons development capacity, were not totally destructive, irrespective of the White House’s public comment. Similarly, Iran’s counterattack was telegraphed well in advance—and clearly part of a phased de-escalation strategy, allowing Tehran to save face and claim that it struck back without risking American retaliation.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Hamara.
