Iran, along with Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Donald Trump, are all backchanneling with each other, attempting to crash-land this bizarre war in a way that minimizes loss of life.
In the wake of America’s remarkable B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bomber attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear weapons development facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, the Iranian regime has raged about an overwhelming response. Yet although Tehran has continued to shoot missiles at Tel Aviv, there has been little done in the way of actual retaliation against America.
Everyone in the region continues to brace for such a reprisal. The Iranians keep saying that it is on its way, and Washington continues doing its best to prepare its forces in the region for possible Iranian attack.
The one thing that Iran has done, however, is send its leaders to discuss the situation with Russia. And the discussions appear to be fruitful. Russian leaders have indicated they may change their position on the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, moving from inaction to action. But what does that even mean?
Iran’s Attack on Al Udeid Was Useless—and Deliberately So
Concerns of terrorist attacks here in the United States and in Europe abound. The Americans continue moving their forces in the Middle East to safer ground, either by pulling them out of range of Iranian missiles or placing them in hardened defensive positions.
On Monday, June 23, the Iranian response finally came. It was a rather bland missile fusillade against Al Uldeid Air Base in Qatar. A total of 14 Iranian missiles were fired by Iran at the base—13 of which were handily intercepted by American air defenses. The final one got through, apparently without causing any significant damage or injury. It has since been reported that the Iranians specifically told the Americans what to expect—telegraphing the attack so as to avoid escalation. Of course, an attack is still an attack, and Trump blustered on social media, as is his wont. But no tangible moves by the Americans have been made to retaliate. Why should they?
After all, Trump’s weekend attack with B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers amounted to a chicken run. Yes, the administration is claiming a great victory. But insider sources tell a slightly different story. Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities targeted by the American strikes were damaged, but not destroyed. This spectacular but limited attack by the Americans was part of what might be dubbed the “imaginary war” between the US and Iran.
Now that the Iranians have fired 14 missiles—out of the literally thousands they could have fired to overwhelm the American base—it appears as though the region might be headed for a cooling-off phase. This is where the real diplomacy is going to take shape. The talking heads in the MAGA-verse are screaming about World War III, and indeed, the world has certainly moved closer over the last five years to this nightmare conflict. But, increasingly, it looks like it will not be coming about because of the Israel-Iran conflict.
The Markets Have Stopped Worrying About Escalation Already
Just look at the price of oil and gold—the two main indicators of global crises. Each time a global emergency erupts, both resources spike in value. Yet even after Trump’s strikes on Iran and Iran’s parliament passing a measure calling for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to initiate a sweeping blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the markets have barely reacted.
Granted, the Iranians have not yet physically blockaded or complicated shipping there. If they did, surely this relatively benign picture would change. But that would represent a massive escalation—and it is increasingly obvious that the Iranians are responding to America’s moves in restrained and measured ways.
What does Tehran know that most Americans don’t? It may be that they, along with Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Donald Trump, are all backchanneling with each other, attempting to crash-land this bizarre war in a way that minimizes loss of life. And what would that end look like? The Iranian regime, and their nuclear weapons development program, are weakened but live to fight another day.
So the ongoing war will end. There will be no World War III. The world will go through a few more days of hostility—and then, like a fever clearing, everything will calm down.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Andrew Leyden.
